***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.4 5.0 35.2 33.2 29.4 2.2 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.4 3.1 4.7 35.1 31.8 28.8 3.2 8.6 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.2 2.9 5.1 35.0 30.1 29.1 3.9 8.2 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 12.8 12.2 11.9 80.1 56.6 53.1 4.5 11.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.0 5.4 7.5 49.2 39.1 38.2 4.5 13.2 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.4 7.9 65.5 48.3 43.1 4.8 9.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.2 4.2 4.6 34.5 30.7 28.1 4.6 8.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.6 13.1 6.8 46.8 39.8 35.2 9.2 15.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.1 3.7 5.9 39.4 35.3 31.4 2.8 11.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.5 6.4 42.1 36.5 32.7 4.0 11.9 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.7 7.5 6.2 44.7 40.3 36.6 4.3 13.1 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.3 47.4 41.2 36.5 4.1 11.4 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.9 7.4 6.8 50.4 41.0 36.8 6.2 8.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.6 3.5 5.8 34.2 27.6 26.2 5.0 13.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 9.5 15.0 16.7 114.5 70.7 65.5 1.4 8.1 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 7.8 6.9 51.7 43.1 40.0 4.0 10.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.4 3.7 4.9 37.1 33.3 29.6 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.3 4.2 6.8 42.1 32.2 31.1 4.2 8.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.3 2.9 4.9 35.3 31.7 29.1 3.0 9.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.7 10.3 56.4 38.3 36.8 4.6 15.0 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 2.8 5.5 36.3 32.5 31.0 2.9 10.0 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.1 3.4 5.6 39.7 35.6 31.9 2.4 9.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.0 2.7 5.0 33.9 29.4 27.6 4.2 8.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.0 3.8 5.9 37.1 30.7 29.4 4.1 11.1 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.6 2.6 6.5 40.6 33.4 32.6 2.5 8.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.7 11.4 9.0 67.4 46.6 43.2 6.6 12.1 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.1 2.8 5.2 34.3 31.0 28.2 3.4 7.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 9.7 12.9 13.3 97.5 63.8 59.8 2.7 7.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 5.7 10.3 7.3 43.1 31.1 30.9 11.0 14.9 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.1 2.4 4.7 34.2 30.5 28.2 3.1 10.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------