***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 10.6 13.4 9.8 1.8 88.4 75.6 8.2 9.0 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 9.9 12.7 9.8 2.0 90.3 77.9 7.4 8.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 11.0 14.3 10.0 2.0 89.6 76.9 8.3 9.8 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 5.4 5.8 7.1 1.3 77.2 69.1 3.1 4.1 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 11.1 12.7 8.2 1.8 83.3 73.4 8.6 9.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.5 11.2 7.6 1.8 82.2 74.1 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 9.6 12.4 9.7 2.0 90.8 77.9 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 4.4 6.1 7.9 2.1 86.6 77.2 1.4 2.4 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 11.5 14.5 9.1 2.0 86.3 75.4 8.7 10.4 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 11.1 13.2 8.6 2.1 87.3 77.0 7.8 9.7 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 11.7 13.1 8.3 1.9 84.4 75.2 8.4 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 10.9 12.6 8.1 1.9 84.4 76.3 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 11.5 12.4 8.2 2.0 84.5 76.9 9.3 10.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 11.8 15.3 10.0 2.5 93.2 79.4 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 9.0 9.0 7.3 1.0 70.3 66.2 6.9 7.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 12.2 13.2 8.0 1.8 84.2 74.6 9.6 10.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 9.2 11.7 9.6 2.1 90.7 78.5 6.5 8.0 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 9.2 11.6 8.7 2.4 89.8 79.7 6.4 8.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 10.2 13.2 10.0 2.1 90.8 78.1 7.5 8.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 8.5 11.1 7.2 2.4 89.8 81.2 5.8 6.6 7.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 11.2 14.2 9.5 1.9 87.2 75.2 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 9.6 12.7 9.8 2.1 90.8 78.6 7.0 8.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 10.2 13.2 10.2 2.2 91.8 78.5 7.4 8.8 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 11.8 15.0 9.7 2.4 90.5 78.8 9.6 10.6 11.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 10.0 12.1 8.3 1.7 84.7 73.9 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 10.3 11.0 7.7 1.8 83.9 76.4 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 10.9 14.0 9.3 1.9 88.2 76.1 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 9.9 9.5 7.3 1.2 73.9 67.7 7.3 8.5 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 7.9 11.0 8.3 2.6 91.5 81.9 5.2 6.4 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 10.0 12.6 9.9 2.0 90.1 77.4 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------