***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9.2 8.9 6.7 1.6 72.9 67.5 4.4 7.3 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 7.9 8.2 6.6 1.6 72.4 67.8 3.0 6.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 9.4 10.0 6.8 1.7 72.5 67.3 4.4 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.6 4.5 1.4 69.8 65.4 -0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.9 5.1 1.6 74.2 66.3 4.7 6.9 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 9.3 9.2 4.6 1.5 66.3 64.5 4.8 6.7 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 7.8 8.1 6.5 1.6 72.6 68.1 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 3.5 3.3 4.9 1.7 70.3 66.9 0.7 1.9 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 10.5 11.2 6.0 1.7 74.7 66.9 5.7 7.9 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 9.4 9.9 5.4 1.7 72.4 67.1 4.8 7.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 9.6 10.4 5.1 1.6 73.2 66.4 5.5 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.9 10.5 5.1 1.6 68.9 66.2 6.2 7.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 9.7 9.3 4.9 1.5 64.9 65.5 6.3 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 10.4 10.8 6.4 1.8 73.9 67.0 4.4 7.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.7 4.7 1.2 66.3 64.3 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.6 4.8 1.5 68.8 65.3 6.1 8.2 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 7.4 7.5 6.5 1.7 73.0 68.1 3.6 5.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 8.0 7.6 5.4 1.8 72.1 67.7 3.0 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 8.6 8.1 6.8 1.7 72.5 67.8 3.3 7.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 7.5 7.7 4.1 1.7 70.5 67.9 1.9 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 9.8 10.1 6.4 1.7 73.3 67.1 4.5 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 8.1 8.0 6.6 1.7 72.8 67.5 3.6 6.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 8.5 8.4 6.9 1.7 73.0 67.5 3.6 6.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 11.1 10.7 6.3 1.8 72.8 67.4 6.4 8.3 9.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 8.1 7.9 5.3 1.6 74.9 67.6 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 8.8 8.4 4.8 1.4 63.1 65.3 5.3 7.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 9.4 9.5 6.1 1.6 74.0 68.1 4.7 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.6 9.2 4.7 1.3 67.8 64.3 4.2 6.4 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 7.7 8.0 4.9 1.8 71.9 68.1 2.1 5.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 8.2 8.2 6.7 1.6 72.4 67.6 3.4 6.4 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------