***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.7 8.2 7.6 -0.1 51.3 50.5 6.0 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.7 8.0 7.5 0.2 52.4 52.8 6.3 8.0 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.7 9.7 7.7 0.1 51.9 51.6 7.7 9.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.7 5.3 -0.3 42.7 47.7 1.0 4.0 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.2 9.4 6.0 -0.2 48.5 49.4 8.2 9.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.8 7.4 5.6 -0.2 41.7 50.3 7.2 8.0 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.3 7.4 0.1 52.0 52.1 6.5 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.3 2.2 5.9 0.2 50.1 52.5 0.5 2.1 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 6.5 10.2 6.8 -0.1 49.2 50.4 8.2 10.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 9.5 6.4 0.1 49.2 51.6 7.3 9.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.7 9.9 6.1 0.0 49.3 50.8 8.2 9.9 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.6 9.4 6.2 0.1 50.5 52.5 8.1 9.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.8 9.4 6.0 0.0 48.3 52.3 7.7 9.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.8 9.5 7.5 0.4 53.4 53.6 7.2 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.1 5.4 -0.5 39.9 46.2 5.7 7.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.9 9.9 5.8 -0.1 46.5 50.4 8.4 10.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.2 7.4 0.3 52.1 53.1 5.6 7.2 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 7.6 6.4 0.3 50.3 52.7 4.4 7.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.3 7.7 0.3 52.8 53.4 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.9 5.0 0.4 50.2 54.1 3.0 5.9 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.3 9.5 7.2 -0.1 49.1 50.1 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 7.6 0.4 52.2 54.2 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.1 7.9 0.3 53.4 53.9 6.9 8.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.2 10.3 7.3 0.3 51.4 52.6 7.6 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.9 8.8 6.1 -0.2 48.1 49.7 7.1 8.9 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 6.4 7.7 5.9 0.1 45.3 53.7 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.7 9.4 6.9 -0.1 50.7 50.5 7.3 9.3 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.7 7.4 5.5 -0.4 41.1 47.0 6.4 7.7 9.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.9 5.9 0.3 50.3 53.6 3.9 5.9 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.3 7.6 0.1 52.5 52.2 6.2 8.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------