***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 12.5 13.3 10.4 1.9 72.1 68.8 6.7 8.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 11.2 12.8 10.2 1.9 75.6 69.0 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.4 10.5 2.0 73.4 69.4 7.0 10.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.5 5.3 8.1 1.6 65.3 65.7 1.8 2.7 5.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 12.4 10.3 8.8 2.0 69.0 68.2 7.7 9.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.7 13.6 8.3 2.1 73.8 68.7 6.9 8.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.8 10.1 1.9 76.4 69.1 6.4 8.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 4.4 5.1 8.7 2.6 77.4 72.6 0.6 2.7 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 13.6 12.0 9.7 2.2 69.9 69.1 7.6 10.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.9 14.6 9.3 2.5 74.9 71.6 7.3 9.7 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 13.2 14.7 8.9 2.2 72.5 69.7 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.2 14.5 9.0 2.3 75.9 71.6 7.4 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.1 15.4 8.7 2.3 76.8 70.8 7.5 9.0 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.9 15.6 10.4 2.6 77.9 71.9 8.0 11.1 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.8 8.0 1.3 62.5 63.4 5.8 8.5 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 13.3 14.2 8.6 2.1 71.2 68.9 8.1 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.6 12.0 10.0 1.9 76.4 68.8 6.3 8.5 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 11.1 12.8 9.5 2.9 78.2 73.8 6.1 7.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 11.7 13.0 10.4 2.0 75.9 69.3 6.3 9.4 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 9.5 11.6 8.1 3.0 80.6 76.1 3.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 13.1 12.3 10.0 2.0 69.8 68.6 7.4 10.0 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 11.1 12.5 10.1 1.9 76.7 69.5 5.9 9.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 11.5 12.9 10.7 2.2 76.3 70.2 6.3 9.1 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.5 15.1 10.3 2.6 76.9 72.0 7.9 10.4 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 11.1 9.8 9.0 1.9 69.2 68.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 12.4 13.8 8.7 2.3 77.9 72.1 6.9 8.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 12.4 13.0 9.8 2.0 72.0 69.4 7.9 9.3 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.5 8.1 1.5 64.1 64.4 6.2 9.6 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 9.7 11.8 9.1 3.1 79.6 75.3 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.9 10.4 1.9 74.7 69.0 6.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------