***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 14.0 17.2 14.7 4.0 89.9 88.1 9.1 11.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 13.3 17.9 15.0 4.4 93.3 92.2 7.7 9.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 14.6 17.7 15.0 4.3 90.2 88.8 9.1 11.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 8.1 8.6 10.6 2.5 78.0 76.2 3.9 6.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 13.9 15.3 12.8 3.6 83.5 82.1 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 13.6 15.5 12.0 3.7 87.0 83.0 9.4 11.7 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 12.8 17.7 14.9 4.4 94.7 93.1 7.7 10.1 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 6.8 7.5 12.0 3.8 85.5 85.1 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 15.1 16.4 14.1 4.0 85.8 84.8 10.4 12.4 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 13.9 15.4 13.2 4.1 85.8 85.5 9.7 11.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 14.6 15.6 13.1 3.9 84.6 83.4 10.1 12.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 14.7 15.4 12.3 3.7 85.5 84.2 9.7 11.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 13.9 16.1 13.1 4.0 89.8 86.3 10.3 12.0 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 15.7 20.3 15.6 5.1 92.2 91.7 9.7 11.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.7 11.2 2.0 77.3 73.8 7.7 9.3 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 15.2 16.0 12.9 3.9 86.3 83.9 11.1 12.7 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 12.9 17.0 14.7 4.4 94.3 93.5 7.2 9.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 13.2 15.7 13.6 4.9 91.0 89.7 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 14.0 18.8 15.1 4.4 93.1 91.8 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 11.8 13.9 11.5 4.5 90.5 90.5 7.0 9.2 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 14.6 15.5 14.5 3.9 86.2 85.0 9.4 11.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 13.5 18.0 14.9 4.5 93.5 92.9 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.2 18.1 15.4 4.6 93.3 91.6 8.5 10.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 15.5 19.1 15.0 4.9 91.3 89.9 10.4 12.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 13.0 14.0 13.0 3.4 84.9 83.3 8.5 11.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 13.2 13.7 11.5 3.2 88.2 84.3 10.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 14.0 17.2 14.2 4.0 91.3 88.4 8.8 11.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 11.4 11.5 11.1 2.4 76.5 75.0 8.8 9.5 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 11.8 15.1 13.4 5.3 94.7 93.0 6.6 8.8 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 13.5 17.0 15.0 4.3 92.7 91.5 8.2 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------