***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 3.5 4.5 4.6 2.1 89.2 80.3 0.3 2.1 3.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 3.1 4.2 4.3 2.3 92.1 81.7 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 4.7 6.2 4.2 2.1 90.4 81.5 2.0 3.4 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 -0.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 90.8 81.7 -3.0 -1.8 -1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 2.4 3.4 2.2 2.1 88.6 80.8 0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 1.5 2.4 0.4 1.7 85.7 79.3 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 2.8 3.9 4.3 2.2 91.9 80.9 0.2 1.3 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 -2.3 -0.8 1.2 2.1 88.4 82.1 -4.7 -3.7 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 3.2 3.7 2.8 2.0 86.5 79.8 0.5 1.7 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 2.5 3.5 1.8 2.1 86.8 81.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 2.4 3.6 1.9 2.0 88.4 81.5 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 1.3 2.3 1.6 2.0 86.8 80.8 -1.5 0.1 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 2.1 2.6 1.0 1.7 82.4 78.0 -0.7 0.8 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 3.0 4.0 2.9 2.1 89.6 82.3 1.2 1.8 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 2.5 4.4 2.6 2.1 90.6 81.4 0.2 0.9 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 2.9 4.1 1.4 1.9 86.0 80.7 0.5 1.7 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 2.4 4.0 4.3 2.3 91.8 81.5 0.0 1.2 2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 0.4 1.6 1.2 2.1 86.7 81.0 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 3.0 4.3 4.3 2.2 92.1 82.1 0.2 1.5 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 2.1 87.3 81.4 -3.6 -2.9 -2.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 2.8 3.9 3.7 2.0 87.7 79.8 0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 2.1 3.8 4.2 2.2 92.1 81.6 0.0 0.9 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 2.8 4.0 3.9 2.2 92.1 82.7 0.5 1.1 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 1.8 3.5 2.6 2.1 88.6 81.5 0.3 1.0 1.6 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 3.1 4.3 2.9 2.1 89.7 80.9 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 1.9 2.5 1.3 1.8 83.0 79.6 -0.3 0.6 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 3.6 4.8 3.7 2.0 88.7 79.8 0.1 2.2 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 1.5 3.0 2.1 2.1 90.7 81.6 -1.0 -0.2 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 0.4 1.8 0.8 2.1 87.1 81.2 -2.0 -0.9 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 3.3 4.7 4.4 2.2 92.0 81.4 0.3 1.7 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------