***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.4 68.8 67.2 -0.8 1.2 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.7 72.0 68.8 -1.8 -0.2 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.5 1.2 1.5 69.8 67.5 -0.3 1.2 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -1.4 -2.3 -1.3 1.3 66.0 64.6 -5.2 -3.1 -2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 1.2 1.5 -0.9 1.5 68.0 66.4 -1.7 -0.5 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 0.8 0.4 -2.0 1.3 62.2 64.9 -2.5 -1.5 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 1.9 2.2 1.3 1.6 72.5 68.3 -1.7 -0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -2.7 -2.6 -1.5 1.7 66.9 67.2 -5.2 -3.9 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 1.8 2.1 0.0 1.6 68.6 67.5 -1.4 0.2 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 1.3 1.2 -1.0 1.7 67.4 67.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 1.0 1.2 -1.0 1.5 67.5 66.6 -1.8 -0.8 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 1.4 0.5 -1.1 1.5 69.4 66.8 -2.6 -0.9 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 1.6 1.1 -1.4 1.3 68.9 65.8 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 2.0 1.9 0.0 1.7 68.8 68.5 -1.0 0.7 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 1.1 1.0 -0.7 1.1 65.2 63.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 1.8 1.7 -1.4 1.4 67.5 66.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 75.2 69.5 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.0 -1.4 1.8 68.3 67.6 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.6 71.8 68.7 -1.4 0.0 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -2.3 -2.7 -2.4 1.8 66.4 67.7 -6.3 -5.0 -2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 1.5 1.9 0.8 1.5 69.9 67.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 75.0 69.4 -1.4 0.0 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.6 71.2 68.6 -0.9 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 1.0 1.2 -0.2 1.7 69.1 67.9 -1.8 -0.2 0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 1.7 1.4 -0.2 1.3 66.6 66.1 -1.3 0.4 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 1.1 1.0 -1.2 1.3 67.6 66.0 -1.9 -0.8 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 2.4 1.7 0.7 1.4 68.1 66.8 -1.6 0.4 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 0.4 0.3 -1.0 1.3 65.4 64.4 -2.2 -0.9 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.8 1.9 69.2 68.1 -3.9 -2.4 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.6 70.8 68.1 -1.5 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------