***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 4.6 4.5 4.9 1.9 74.2 69.3 -0.5 1.3 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 3.5 4.0 4.8 2.1 75.2 71.7 -0.4 0.5 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 5.6 5.6 4.6 2.0 75.5 71.0 0.8 2.7 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 0.7 1.6 2.4 1.9 75.7 71.1 -4.7 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.8 74.1 70.3 -0.4 0.3 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 2.3 3.2 1.4 2.0 77.8 73.3 -1.7 -0.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 3.8 4.2 4.8 2.2 74.7 71.8 -0.1 0.9 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.1 1.9 2.1 76.1 72.4 -7.3 -4.3 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 3.7 4.4 3.2 1.8 74.2 69.4 -0.1 1.1 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 3.1 3.5 2.4 2.1 74.7 71.0 -0.7 0.3 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 2.7 3.2 2.4 1.9 72.2 70.6 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 73.4 70.9 -1.8 0.1 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 2.6 2.9 1.8 1.9 74.2 71.1 -0.6 0.8 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 4.1 4.8 3.5 2.2 76.9 73.7 -0.3 1.2 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 3.0 2.9 2.9 1.8 74.8 70.3 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 3.1 3.4 2.1 1.9 73.2 71.3 0.1 1.3 3.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 3.6 4.0 4.6 2.2 75.0 71.5 -0.6 1.1 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.4 78.1 73.1 -2.0 -0.9 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 3.1 3.8 4.7 2.1 75.7 72.0 -0.6 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 -1.0 -0.2 1.2 2.7 80.0 75.9 -5.4 -4.0 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 3.8 4.3 4.1 1.8 74.4 69.0 -0.4 0.5 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 2.9 3.5 4.5 2.1 74.7 71.3 -0.8 0.6 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 3.1 3.8 4.4 2.0 76.1 72.3 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.2 77.3 72.7 -0.7 0.3 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 3.7 4.3 3.3 1.9 76.0 70.3 0.1 1.2 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.0 76.7 72.3 -0.9 0.9 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 4.1 4.3 4.2 2.0 74.3 69.9 -0.7 1.4 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 1.6 1.8 2.6 1.9 75.3 71.2 -1.2 0.4 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 1.9 3.4 1.9 2.6 80.2 75.4 -3.7 -2.6 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 4.1 4.2 4.8 2.1 74.7 71.5 -0.1 1.1 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------