***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 5.4 8.8 9.4 5.0 99.8 97.4 1.9 2.8 4.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 5.0 7.6 9.1 5.0 99.9 98.0 1.2 2.5 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 6.6 10.3 9.0 4.8 99.5 97.7 3.2 4.4 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 1.9 6.6 6.5 4.9 98.4 97.7 -1.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 4.0 7.2 6.7 4.5 97.9 96.5 0.7 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 2.7 5.0 3.4 3.2 89.3 87.8 -0.7 1.9 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 5.2 7.5 9.0 4.9 100.0 96.9 1.5 2.1 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -0.7 2.5 5.1 4.1 97.9 95.9 -3.6 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.8 6.9 4.1 96.1 94.9 1.8 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 4.1 6.3 5.7 4.1 96.6 95.2 0.4 2.7 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 3.9 7.6 6.2 4.3 98.8 96.8 0.3 2.1 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 2.8 6.4 5.3 3.9 97.0 94.0 -0.6 1.4 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 3.5 4.5 4.2 3.1 86.9 86.2 -0.1 1.3 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 5.3 7.1 6.9 4.0 95.2 93.7 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.8 7.3 8.0 5.2 99.3 98.4 0.7 1.9 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 4.4 6.5 5.3 4.0 94.8 93.5 0.9 3.0 3.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 4.7 6.2 8.8 4.9 99.5 97.8 1.3 2.0 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 2.4 3.5 4.6 3.6 92.6 91.3 -0.7 1.0 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 5.3 6.9 8.9 4.9 99.8 98.1 1.2 2.3 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 0.8 3.1 3.1 3.5 92.6 90.8 -2.8 -1.6 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 4.4 8.6 8.2 4.5 98.8 96.2 1.3 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 4.3 5.6 8.5 4.6 98.4 96.9 0.9 2.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.7 6.6 8.4 4.6 99.1 97.8 1.5 2.0 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 3.1 5.3 6.4 3.9 93.4 92.8 1.0 1.8 2.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 4.3 7.7 7.9 4.8 99.5 97.2 0.8 2.9 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 3.6 5.7 4.7 3.6 94.6 91.6 -0.5 2.2 2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 5.5 10.1 8.4 4.6 97.9 94.9 2.0 2.6 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 3.0 6.6 6.9 4.9 98.3 97.6 -0.3 0.5 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 2.3 5.7 3.8 3.4 91.4 89.4 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 5.4 8.5 9.3 5.0 100.0 98.0 1.5 2.6 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------