***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 27.5 33.4 31.4 66.8 28.7 30.8 34.8 45.0 51.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 24.0 25.1 26.8 62.5 28.3 29.1 31.8 37.3 52.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 33.2 35.8 31.7 67.9 29.8 31.2 38.0 49.2 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 45.1 43.9 39.5 71.6 32.7 34.1 44.0 59.8 74.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 34.9 36.9 37.0 70.7 31.3 33.3 37.7 54.4 66.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 27.4 35.3 37.6 74.9 33.8 36.1 34.2 46.4 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 25.1 23.1 25.5 60.1 27.1 27.5 30.1 37.3 45.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 46.2 53.6 39.9 69.1 30.4 32.3 56.6 70.8 90.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 28.6 40.0 38.0 72.2 32.2 33.8 40.2 47.1 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 37.4 36.6 40.1 71.3 31.2 33.2 36.9 57.6 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 36.8 29.7 36.1 69.4 30.6 32.8 31.8 62.2 80.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 36.1 43.5 36.1 68.8 31.0 32.9 45.1 67.2 93.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 33.7 41.6 37.6 70.8 32.5 34.4 42.1 57.5 74.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 38.1 41.5 39.6 68.4 29.7 31.1 44.9 61.4 84.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 37.2 50.3 38.2 69.6 33.8 34.4 49.7 59.5 82.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 30.7 38.1 36.8 72.0 32.6 34.5 38.4 50.8 76.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 26.1 22.3 25.1 58.4 25.3 27.0 27.9 42.1 53.9 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 35.7 37.5 39.9 68.1 29.3 30.9 42.4 55.8 74.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 28.9 26.9 28.2 64.3 28.9 29.9 31.8 43.3 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 39.6 38.3 45.4 62.6 26.9 27.8 40.2 72.2 88.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 34.1 37.6 34.8 70.0 31.1 32.5 39.7 49.8 61.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 26.7 30.2 27.5 60.6 26.5 28.2 32.4 46.9 61.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 26.3 26.9 30.7 66.4 29.1 30.6 29.6 44.5 57.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 34.2 40.2 36.9 68.0 28.4 30.9 42.5 55.3 78.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 25.5 29.1 35.3 66.6 27.8 30.3 35.1 46.3 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 30.4 33.7 36.1 65.2 27.1 30.9 44.5 55.4 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 25.5 30.3 32.7 66.3 28.6 30.4 32.4 43.0 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 31.6 41.4 39.0 74.1 35.6 36.2 40.6 48.1 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 53.8 47.1 41.2 65.8 27.9 29.4 54.9 89.3 117.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 27.7 27.1 28.5 65.2 30.0 30.4 28.0 39.4 46.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------