***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.5 17.8 12.4 99.9 61.4 51.4 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.4 10.3 92.1 56.9 48.7 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.9 17.0 12.6 99.6 61.6 50.2 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.8 13.7 97.5 60.6 48.7 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 13.7 13.9 98.3 58.9 48.1 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.6 9.0 14.5 108.1 63.5 51.0 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.2 9.7 87.1 53.8 47.0 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.9 17.8 15.0 98.3 60.1 47.7 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.6 14.4 97.9 58.8 47.6 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.7 14.3 15.1 97.7 58.5 47.4 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.2 14.0 100.8 60.8 48.3 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.0 15.6 13.9 102.0 62.3 48.6 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.3 16.4 14.9 107.7 63.6 50.5 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.1 16.0 15.6 98.3 60.2 48.9 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 12.3 13.5 96.3 61.7 48.7 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.0 13.0 14.1 105.1 62.3 49.8 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.0 5.1 9.1 82.3 50.5 45.3 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 15.3 15.2 93.6 57.2 45.6 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.2 11.0 95.5 59.2 49.7 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 12.6 18.3 91.2 57.0 45.9 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.0 13.4 98.8 61.0 48.8 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.5 10.0 86.6 51.8 46.5 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.6 12.1 97.5 61.6 50.0 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.2 16.6 14.4 96.3 59.1 47.5 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.6 13.6 99.6 59.3 50.5 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.8 11.8 14.6 103.3 57.8 50.0 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.3 12.8 99.5 59.6 51.2 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.7 9.3 13.5 100.3 63.2 49.3 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.0 16.9 16.1 91.9 55.4 45.1 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.3 11.0 95.4 58.7 50.0 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------