***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.5 4.1 9.2 81.7 54.7 47.1 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.6 3.8 7.9 78.0 51.3 45.3 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.4 8.6 75.6 53.9 45.9 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 7.8 11.2 82.7 53.8 45.6 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.6 11.1 84.2 55.2 46.1 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.3 12.1 95.0 58.9 48.2 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.5 7.7 76.1 51.6 44.6 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 9.8 11.9 83.1 53.9 45.5 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.8 10.9 79.8 55.1 45.1 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.3 11.4 79.6 53.6 44.6 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.8 10.9 83.8 54.4 44.9 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.3 11.2 87.0 56.6 46.0 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.0 12.0 93.2 58.2 47.1 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.1 9.7 69.8 51.3 42.6 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.4 10.9 78.1 55.0 44.4 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.0 11.5 91.6 56.4 47.4 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.1 7.7 78.2 52.4 43.8 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 8.1 10.7 71.7 50.4 43.0 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.9 7.9 75.7 50.2 45.0 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.5 8.2 13.6 74.7 50.0 43.8 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.4 10.0 79.7 54.6 45.9 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.0 8.1 78.2 51.2 43.6 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.7 7.8 71.5 49.5 44.3 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.7 9.4 69.7 52.0 42.9 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.8 11.0 85.4 55.3 46.8 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.1 11.0 83.2 53.4 45.3 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.5 9.9 84.5 55.7 47.4 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.3 10.9 83.1 55.3 45.7 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.2 11.2 71.5 50.3 43.3 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.6 4.1 8.3 78.7 52.8 46.3 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------