***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.8 11.0 8.3 71.1 50.2 41.0 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.0 7.8 6.5 61.8 48.3 38.5 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.4 9.2 8.4 71.7 48.9 40.0 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.0 14.1 9.8 68.1 47.0 38.3 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.8 12.3 10.0 74.2 49.3 41.4 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.6 16.9 9.7 76.0 55.4 42.6 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.9 6.5 62.4 49.3 38.6 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.3 13.1 10.0 71.4 50.9 40.8 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.9 10.5 78.4 52.9 42.4 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.7 16.2 10.5 75.7 51.4 41.2 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.7 12.5 9.1 67.5 48.6 38.2 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.8 15.5 8.8 67.4 49.9 39.6 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.7 20.1 9.2 68.2 51.1 39.4 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.0 17.2 10.1 71.6 51.1 39.9 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 4.3 11.5 9.8 66.0 52.1 36.6 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.8 15.0 9.7 73.5 52.2 42.0 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.1 9.6 6.0 56.0 48.4 37.2 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.0 10.5 75.7 50.8 40.8 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.3 8.7 6.8 63.2 47.3 37.8 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 8.0 10.4 60.5 42.3 34.3 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.7 9.6 75.3 51.8 41.8 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.5 11.6 6.3 54.8 46.3 38.0 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.3 10.4 7.8 68.1 47.6 37.5 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.0 12.4 9.7 72.7 49.2 39.3 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.0 8.5 9.3 66.0 46.0 37.9 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 7.3 15.3 9.0 63.1 49.5 37.5 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.8 8.6 68.6 48.6 39.5 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.6 10.1 72.0 51.8 39.9 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.6 14.9 10.6 72.2 49.4 39.2 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.9 7.6 7.3 68.5 49.6 40.7 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------