***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 1.4 2.4 1.4 12.5 26.1 19.7 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 1.9 3.4 2.1 19.2 31.9 25.7 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 1.5 3.4 2.2 19.7 30.8 24.4 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.7 5.5 4.9 36.7 36.2 32.1 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 0.8 1.5 1.9 16.9 27.8 21.5 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 0.3 1.6 1.2 11.1 26.1 20.6 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 1.8 3.3 1.7 15.5 30.4 24.2 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 2.6 6.5 3.0 21.2 32.6 25.5 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.2 20.3 30.9 22.6 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 1.4 1.5 3.1 24.7 33.8 26.2 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 1.1 0.1 2.2 18.6 31.0 24.2 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 0.8 3.1 2.2 17.0 31.0 23.7 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 0.5 2.6 1.5 11.6 25.7 19.4 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 3.1 5.5 4.2 29.8 35.3 29.0 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.0 2.4 4.0 33.4 36.5 32.7 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 0.6 1.1 1.5 12.9 27.7 20.9 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 1.1 2.2 2.3 19.9 31.5 26.3 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 1.2 3.7 3.6 26.5 32.4 26.2 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 1.9 3.8 2.5 22.5 33.1 27.0 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 1.9 2.6 3.1 18.7 30.7 21.2 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 1.1 2.3 1.8 16.8 28.2 21.4 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 1.1 2.5 3.0 25.6 34.2 27.8 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.0 4.8 2.9 25.7 34.3 27.9 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 1.4 3.1 3.4 27.6 33.4 27.9 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 0.5 1.0 1.5 12.2 23.7 19.3 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 0.9 2.1 1.4 10.2 27.0 17.1 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 0.5 1.2 1.4 11.4 24.8 19.8 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.6 2.2 4.5 37.5 37.6 33.8 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 2.6 5.7 3.4 22.8 31.2 24.2 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 2.2 2.8 2.0 17.7 30.2 24.1 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------