***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 6.7 7.1 7.8 -1.5 26.0 29.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 6.0 6.6 7.7 -1.5 29.1 30.1 7.5 8.9 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 7.3 7.7 8.2 -1.5 28.3 30.1 8.6 10.1 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 1.7 2.0 4.9 -1.6 25.7 28.7 3.2 4.4 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 7.3 7.5 6.5 -1.5 27.5 30.2 9.0 10.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.0 7.2 5.7 -1.6 26.2 30.7 8.4 9.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 5.8 6.2 7.7 -1.5 28.4 29.4 7.1 8.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.1 1.4 6.1 -1.3 30.7 34.6 1.4 2.4 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.0 7.3 -1.5 28.0 30.3 8.8 10.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.5 7.5 6.6 -1.4 29.9 32.7 7.9 10.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.3 6.7 -1.7 25.1 29.6 8.6 10.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.0 6.4 -1.5 27.0 31.5 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 7.5 8.1 6.4 -1.6 25.5 29.8 9.5 10.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.9 8.9 7.8 -1.3 33.9 34.3 8.8 10.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 6.3 6.3 6.3 -1.5 24.7 28.6 7.0 8.2 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 7.8 8.7 6.2 -1.7 25.9 29.1 9.9 10.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 5.7 6.1 7.6 -1.4 29.6 31.4 6.6 8.3 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 6.5 6.7 -1.2 33.4 35.8 6.5 8.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 6.5 7.2 8.0 -1.5 30.3 30.6 7.7 9.2 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.7 5.7 -0.7 38.6 42.4 6.3 6.9 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.7 7.8 -1.5 28.6 30.4 8.7 10.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.9 7.8 -1.3 32.4 33.5 7.0 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 6.5 7.3 8.3 -1.4 32.0 32.0 7.4 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.4 9.8 7.6 -1.4 32.5 33.1 9.8 11.0 11.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 6.6 6.2 6.7 -1.4 27.1 30.6 8.0 9.0 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.7 6.3 -1.0 31.2 35.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 7.1 6.6 7.4 -1.5 26.2 29.9 8.9 10.0 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 7.3 7.1 5.5 -1.7 25.1 28.5 7.3 8.8 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 5.8 6.5 -0.9 36.4 39.4 5.4 6.7 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 6.2 6.5 7.8 -1.5 28.6 29.7 7.7 9.0 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------