***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.8 7.6 7.1 0.7 53.7 55.7 4.9 7.3 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 6.9 6.5 7.1 0.8 55.2 55.8 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.0 7.7 0.9 56.6 57.2 4.3 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.9 4.8 0.8 58.7 57.0 -0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.1 5.8 0.8 56.4 56.3 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.5 5.3 0.6 54.1 54.7 5.1 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.2 7.0 0.7 53.2 54.6 4.2 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.7 5.6 0.8 54.4 55.6 0.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.5 6.7 0.9 57.2 57.1 5.9 7.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.2 6.2 0.9 55.8 56.7 5.4 7.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.1 5.9 0.7 54.9 55.4 5.3 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.2 5.7 0.6 53.6 54.9 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.3 5.2 0.4 49.4 52.7 5.8 8.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.7 7.5 1.3 59.2 59.1 5.0 7.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.9 5.6 0.8 59.8 57.2 4.1 6.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.3 5.5 0.6 53.7 54.4 5.7 8.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.1 7.1 0.9 58.0 56.5 3.4 5.5 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.5 6.4 1.0 56.7 57.3 3.5 5.7 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.4 7.5 7.4 0.9 56.7 56.7 3.5 7.0 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.9 4.7 0.8 53.5 55.5 2.8 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.0 7.2 1.0 56.6 57.7 4.7 7.5 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.9 7.3 1.0 60.3 57.9 3.8 5.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.4 7.9 1.1 58.2 57.9 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.1 8.9 7.3 1.2 58.0 58.4 6.4 8.7 10.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.9 6.8 5.9 0.8 55.2 56.3 4.7 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.0 5.0 0.3 49.2 52.3 5.8 8.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.0 6.7 0.7 53.1 55.3 4.7 7.7 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.3 5.2 0.9 59.8 57.1 4.8 6.6 8.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.8 5.8 0.9 55.4 56.7 2.7 5.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.3 7.1 7.1 0.8 54.1 55.4 4.0 6.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------