***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.4 6.8 7.3 -0.8 38.8 42.3 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.9 7.4 -0.7 41.5 43.7 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.9 7.8 -0.7 39.7 43.4 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 1.0 3.0 5.1 -0.6 40.6 44.5 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.3 6.0 -0.7 39.3 43.9 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.3 6.9 5.2 -1.0 34.9 42.6 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.8 7.4 7.2 -0.7 40.2 43.1 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 1.3 5.7 -0.6 38.4 45.0 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.3 6.8 -0.6 38.7 44.5 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.3 6.3 -0.6 38.4 45.2 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.8 6.1 -0.7 38.2 43.5 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.5 6.0 -0.7 37.6 43.7 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.7 8.4 5.5 -0.9 36.4 42.4 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.2 7.5 -0.4 41.9 46.3 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.7 5.8 -0.5 39.5 45.0 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.6 5.7 -0.8 36.8 42.8 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.7 7.2 7.3 -0.6 42.1 44.5 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.7 6.5 -0.5 38.8 46.3 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.3 8.1 7.6 -0.6 41.6 44.1 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 4.3 5.0 -0.4 39.0 47.0 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.6 8.7 7.3 -0.7 39.9 44.0 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.4 7.4 -0.4 42.0 45.9 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.8 8.0 -0.6 41.6 44.7 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.4 7.3 -0.5 39.7 45.6 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.3 6.1 -0.7 37.8 43.4 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.7 6.7 5.5 -0.8 35.7 42.9 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.4 7.5 6.9 -0.8 37.9 42.4 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.7 5.4 -0.6 39.8 44.7 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.2 6.1 -0.4 40.2 46.9 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.0 7.8 7.3 -0.7 40.7 43.1 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------