***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 5.9 6.3 7.5 -2.9 24.2 25.1 6.6 8.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 5.7 5.3 7.5 -2.9 22.4 24.7 6.9 8.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 5.8 6.5 7.8 -3.0 23.1 25.1 7.2 9.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 1.1 0.8 4.9 -2.5 24.0 28.8 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 6.2 6.1 6.3 -2.8 24.2 27.6 7.6 8.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 5.6 6.7 5.6 -2.4 28.1 29.9 7.2 8.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 5.5 5.3 7.5 -2.8 21.9 24.9 6.2 8.1 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -0.7 0.6 6.1 -2.3 28.9 31.6 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 6.0 6.5 7.0 -2.9 23.1 26.6 8.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 5.3 6.4 6.4 -2.7 26.5 29.3 6.9 9.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 6.0 6.2 6.6 -3.0 24.2 27.0 7.1 9.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 5.8 7.2 6.3 -2.6 26.7 29.1 7.7 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 5.9 6.7 6.4 -2.8 26.5 27.5 7.6 8.8 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 5.5 6.4 7.4 -3.0 24.0 27.4 8.1 9.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 5.8 4.9 6.4 -2.5 22.5 26.8 6.5 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 6.6 6.9 6.1 -2.9 24.7 26.9 8.1 9.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 5.3 4.9 7.3 -2.7 22.6 25.7 6.7 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 4.6 5.5 6.4 -2.5 27.8 31.0 6.3 7.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 5.0 5.7 7.7 -3.0 23.0 24.7 7.0 8.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.0 5.6 -1.6 32.1 36.1 3.1 6.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 6.1 6.4 7.5 -3.0 23.5 25.9 7.8 9.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 5.0 5.9 7.6 -2.6 25.6 26.8 7.0 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 5.5 5.3 7.9 -3.0 22.9 24.9 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 5.9 6.9 7.3 -2.9 24.7 27.8 8.3 9.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 5.7 6.3 6.5 -2.7 24.6 26.5 6.8 8.2 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 6.4 6.4 6.3 -1.9 29.1 31.6 6.7 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 6.4 6.4 7.1 -2.8 24.6 25.4 7.2 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 6.3 5.4 5.6 -2.6 23.9 28.0 7.1 9.3 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 2.8 2.9 6.2 -2.1 29.3 33.1 3.3 6.1 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 5.7 5.9 7.6 -2.9 22.6 24.9 6.4 8.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------