***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 8.4 7.9 9.2 -3.1 18.3 19.7 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 6.7 7.0 9.0 -3.3 17.5 18.1 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 7.8 8.0 9.4 -3.3 18.5 19.4 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 1.8 0.3 4.9 -4.2 9.0 10.5 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 8.7 8.8 7.7 -3.5 18.5 19.3 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 7.6 7.5 6.5 -3.4 19.3 20.6 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 6.0 6.3 9.0 -3.2 18.7 19.1 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.4 7.2 -2.9 25.7 25.6 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 8.7 8.4 8.5 -3.5 17.8 18.2 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 9.1 9.1 7.5 -3.4 22.9 22.5 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 9.2 9.4 8.1 -3.6 19.9 20.2 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 8.7 9.3 7.5 -3.2 22.5 22.7 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 9.2 9.5 8.7 -2.9 25.4 25.5 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 7.8 8.6 8.7 -3.3 23.2 22.6 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 7.0 6.4 7.3 -3.9 9.1 10.7 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 9.5 9.8 7.7 -3.5 21.4 21.1 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 5.7 5.9 8.6 -3.2 18.2 18.8 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 7.9 8.1 7.5 -2.9 25.2 26.2 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 7.0 7.6 9.1 -3.4 18.1 18.5 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 7.7 7.5 -1.4 35.8 37.0 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 8.4 8.2 9.3 -3.4 17.7 18.9 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 6.5 7.0 8.9 -3.1 20.5 20.0 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 7.1 7.4 9.3 -3.3 19.6 20.0 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 8.7 9.0 8.7 -3.4 21.6 21.8 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 7.6 7.7 8.3 -3.1 19.0 20.3 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 9.2 9.7 8.5 -1.6 29.5 30.9 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 8.6 8.4 9.0 -2.9 20.0 21.6 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 7.4 7.0 5.9 -4.3 8.4 10.3 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.7 6.5 7.8 -2.0 31.5 32.5 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 6.9 7.2 9.2 -3.2 18.0 18.9 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------