***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 0.5 0.3 2.0 -1.5 25.1 29.3 0.6 2.1 3.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.9 -1.1 29.0 33.1 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 1.9 1.2 2.1 -1.3 26.0 31.0 2.1 3.5 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -3.9 -0.4 -1.3 25.0 31.1 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.3 26.4 31.5 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -1.1 -0.9 -1.6 -1.0 29.0 34.5 -0.6 0.5 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.8 -1.3 28.3 31.4 0.1 1.2 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -1.4 -1.1 28.6 33.8 -4.3 -3.5 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 0.5 0.6 0.6 -1.1 28.0 33.3 0.7 1.6 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 30.8 35.2 0.3 1.2 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 27.9 32.8 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -1.3 -1.9 -1.0 -1.4 23.9 30.8 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 22.7 30.0 -0.7 1.0 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.4 0.7 -0.8 37.1 38.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.3 0.0 1.1 -1.0 27.6 33.6 0.1 0.9 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 0.3 0.2 -0.8 -1.3 25.6 31.5 0.6 1.7 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.8 -1.1 31.6 33.8 0.0 1.2 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 34.4 37.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.5 0.2 1.9 -1.1 29.3 33.7 0.3 1.5 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -4.2 -3.4 -2.2 -0.9 33.1 37.2 -3.4 -2.6 -2.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 0.2 -0.2 1.4 -1.4 24.8 29.8 0.5 1.6 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.1 0.0 2.0 -0.9 32.3 35.4 0.0 0.9 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 0.3 0.6 2.0 -1.0 30.7 35.0 0.7 1.2 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.9 33.1 35.9 0.4 0.9 1.7 27 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 0.3 -0.2 1.2 -1.5 25.4 29.2 0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 23.7 30.2 -0.1 0.7 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 -0.2 0.0 1.6 -1.6 24.6 28.5 0.3 2.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.3 -1.7 -0.1 -1.2 26.4 32.2 -0.9 -0.3 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -1.1 -1.3 -0.6 37.7 40.3 -1.9 -0.8 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 0.6 0.2 2.0 -1.2 27.1 31.9 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------