***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 -0.7 0.4 1.4 -1.2 38.4 39.5 -0.2 1.2 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.0 1.2 -1.0 39.3 41.2 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.1 1.2 1.4 -1.1 37.6 39.9 1.1 2.7 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -4.5 -3.4 -1.2 -1.2 38.6 40.1 -3.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -1.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 36.6 39.9 -1.1 0.7 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -2.1 -2.3 -2.7 -1.3 32.3 39.6 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -0.7 0.1 1.3 -1.0 39.3 41.4 -0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -6.0 -5.7 -2.3 -1.2 33.8 40.3 -5.7 -3.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 36.2 40.7 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -1.3 -0.9 -1.7 -1.1 34.8 40.7 -1.1 0.5 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 34.8 39.9 -1.7 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 33.9 39.9 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -2.2 -1.3 33.0 39.9 -1.6 0.3 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.9 36.9 42.6 0.3 1.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 1.7 0.0 -0.1 -1.1 37.2 40.5 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -0.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.2 34.6 39.9 -0.4 1.0 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -0.8 -0.4 1.3 -0.9 40.2 42.0 -0.5 0.8 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -2.8 -1.6 -2.3 -1.0 37.2 41.9 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -0.5 0.1 1.2 -1.0 38.5 40.8 -0.4 0.8 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -6.6 -4.7 -3.4 -1.2 34.4 41.4 -5.0 -3.5 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 0.7 -1.2 37.4 39.8 -0.4 0.9 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 1.2 -0.9 39.7 41.7 -0.5 0.5 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 -0.7 0.3 1.2 -1.0 37.9 40.7 -0.1 0.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 38.4 42.2 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.2 38.1 39.9 -0.5 1.7 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.1 35.2 40.6 -1.8 0.2 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -0.9 0.3 1.0 -1.2 38.3 39.9 -0.3 0.9 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 0.6 -1.4 -1.1 -1.2 37.2 40.2 -2.2 -0.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -3.6 -2.5 -1.0 36.6 42.3 -3.7 -1.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -0.5 0.6 1.3 -1.0 39.2 40.7 0.2 1.0 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------