***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 -0.5 -1.2 1.5 -2.9 14.3 22.7 0.1 1.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 1.4 -2.5 19.9 25.3 -0.2 0.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 0.6 -0.1 1.8 -2.6 17.8 24.3 1.4 2.8 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 -4.6 -4.9 -0.5 -2.3 21.5 25.2 -4.2 -2.0 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 -1.1 -1.0 0.2 -2.4 22.5 25.9 -0.3 0.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -1.7 -1.9 23.7 27.1 -0.9 0.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 -1.1 -1.9 1.2 -2.7 18.4 24.4 0.1 1.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -7.3 -8.0 -1.3 -2.0 22.0 27.9 -6.7 -4.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 -2.3 20.7 26.1 0.6 1.2 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -0.8 -2.0 22.6 28.0 -0.4 1.1 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 -1.2 -1.3 -0.2 -2.2 23.1 26.6 -0.5 1.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -1.0 -2.3 21.2 25.5 -1.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 -1.3 -1.7 -1.2 -2.3 20.8 25.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -0.2 -0.8 0.6 -1.8 25.7 30.4 -0.1 2.2 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 0.8 -2.3 19.5 24.0 1.2 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 -2.2 22.6 26.1 0.6 1.6 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 -1.0 -1.6 1.2 -2.5 20.3 25.7 -0.1 1.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -2.3 -1.8 -1.0 -1.7 27.4 31.0 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 1.5 -2.4 19.9 25.7 0.2 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 -6.1 -5.4 -2.0 -1.6 28.0 32.0 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 -0.8 -0.9 1.1 -2.6 18.2 23.5 -0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 -1.2 -1.4 1.5 -2.3 20.8 26.5 -0.3 0.6 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 1.6 -2.2 20.0 26.9 -0.5 0.6 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -1.2 -1.2 0.3 -1.9 23.1 28.7 -0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 -0.5 -0.9 0.9 -2.8 17.6 23.1 0.3 0.9 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -2.3 23.0 26.3 -0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 -1.2 -2.1 1.1 -3.0 15.7 22.4 -0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 -1.5 -1.8 -0.3 -2.4 20.8 24.3 -0.4 0.7 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -4.1 -4.0 -1.2 -1.4 29.9 33.4 -3.6 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 -0.8 -1.6 1.5 -2.6 18.0 24.7 0.2 1.4 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------