***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 27.5 30.3 28.1 60.2 26.6 28.6 34.8 45.0 51.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 24.6 26.0 28.5 63.5 28.7 30.2 31.8 37.3 52.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 33.2 34.2 29.2 59.6 24.0 27.1 38.0 49.2 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 43.0 38.7 32.0 58.1 20.0 25.1 44.0 59.8 74.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 31.8 27.2 32.4 58.5 19.7 25.1 37.7 54.4 66.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 29.3 31.5 34.0 63.6 28.3 29.4 34.2 46.4 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 26.6 23.7 28.8 65.4 27.9 31.0 30.1 37.3 45.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 42.7 33.0 34.6 59.8 21.9 25.8 56.6 70.8 90.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 24.8 25.4 33.8 60.5 21.2 25.2 40.2 47.1 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 32.7 26.9 35.4 60.0 21.5 25.4 36.9 57.6 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 32.5 26.0 30.4 59.2 21.3 26.2 31.8 62.2 80.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 33.8 30.8 30.4 59.9 21.9 26.4 45.1 67.2 93.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 32.3 26.5 31.8 60.4 22.7 26.8 42.1 57.5 74.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 34.4 35.4 37.0 59.8 22.6 26.3 44.9 61.4 84.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 33.9 35.0 31.1 56.3 20.7 24.5 49.7 59.5 82.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 29.2 27.0 29.8 58.8 20.1 26.1 38.4 50.8 76.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 27.3 24.0 29.1 66.2 30.4 31.7 27.9 42.1 53.9 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 33.9 34.8 39.1 60.3 26.0 25.6 42.4 55.8 74.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 29.4 25.4 28.6 61.5 27.0 29.1 31.8 43.3 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 38.7 35.2 45.1 58.7 24.0 24.5 40.2 72.2 88.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 31.9 33.1 31.0 59.7 23.3 25.8 39.7 49.8 61.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 27.6 30.6 29.8 63.5 27.8 29.8 32.4 46.9 61.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 26.6 21.8 30.3 59.8 22.6 27.5 29.6 44.5 57.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 31.7 36.3 35.7 60.3 25.1 26.2 42.5 55.3 78.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 25.2 22.0 32.8 59.4 19.3 26.4 35.1 46.3 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 31.1 31.3 31.0 58.2 24.1 26.0 44.5 55.4 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 26.0 29.6 31.4 60.9 23.3 28.1 32.4 43.0 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 29.1 30.1 30.7 57.2 20.2 24.9 40.6 48.1 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 51.2 45.5 41.5 60.0 26.0 25.6 54.9 89.3 117.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 28.1 25.7 28.1 61.8 27.8 29.2 28.0 39.4 46.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------