***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.3 17.7 9.7 99.2 61.0 50.6 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.0 10.0 106.8 60.9 52.2 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.4 17.9 10.1 103.1 64.8 53.3 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 9.8 10.8 94.3 60.6 47.5 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 15.1 10.7 94.7 60.2 48.5 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.7 7.7 11.5 98.1 54.9 49.3 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.4 10.0 105.8 62.0 51.3 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.8 17.3 11.1 99.3 58.7 50.5 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.8 11.0 93.9 59.3 49.3 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.2 11.3 96.4 58.4 50.2 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.1 9.8 96.3 60.1 49.9 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.5 13.7 9.8 98.9 60.8 50.5 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.9 10.8 97.5 54.0 49.0 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.8 17.7 12.3 100.6 63.1 52.6 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.2 7.8 10.4 89.9 56.1 46.0 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.2 10.1 9.9 96.1 59.3 49.2 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.6 10.4 112.8 66.7 53.2 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 16.4 12.6 98.4 59.8 50.4 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.7 9.9 105.2 61.2 52.5 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 10.7 14.2 98.0 54.0 49.1 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.2 18.3 10.4 95.4 61.9 50.1 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.6 14.3 10.2 108.4 64.0 53.0 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 10.3 101.9 62.0 52.9 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.7 18.9 12.0 102.1 64.7 52.9 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.9 10.4 11.0 94.2 58.3 48.5 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.7 10.8 98.9 57.1 50.2 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.6 13.4 10.4 95.2 57.1 49.0 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.7 10.3 92.7 59.5 47.1 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 17.3 13.3 97.7 58.2 49.7 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.6 9.7 103.7 60.0 51.9 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------