***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 1.3 4.1 10.0 82.8 54.4 41.4 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.4 4.7 10.2 89.8 56.2 43.5 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.3 5.4 10.0 78.1 50.1 40.3 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.3 7.1 11.1 80.2 51.3 41.1 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.8 11.1 79.6 50.7 41.2 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.1 5.0 10.6 73.2 47.5 39.4 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.3 4.5 10.3 92.2 57.8 43.8 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.5 8.2 11.9 76.8 48.1 42.2 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.1 11.5 79.5 50.5 41.3 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.2 6.9 11.9 77.3 48.0 41.8 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.3 10.4 79.5 51.3 42.5 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.4 77.3 49.5 41.5 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.6 5.7 10.4 75.5 47.1 39.8 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.0 8.3 11.9 75.1 51.8 40.8 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.9 11.2 79.5 51.6 40.3 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.9 9.9 76.6 50.1 40.5 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.3 8.8 10.6 99.3 65.6 45.8 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.4 7.5 12.6 74.1 48.0 41.2 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.5 10.2 86.0 54.2 42.7 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.3 15.6 75.9 50.2 42.4 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.2 5.6 10.7 80.4 50.2 40.6 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.4 9.0 11.1 96.2 58.8 46.1 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.2 6.7 10.4 80.7 53.6 41.3 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.3 6.1 11.4 74.0 50.0 40.3 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.8 7.5 11.9 84.3 53.3 41.6 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.2 5.3 10.1 73.1 44.9 39.7 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.1 6.3 11.4 85.5 54.4 42.0 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.9 6.6 10.4 76.1 50.7 40.4 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 10.8 13.5 73.7 49.8 41.7 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.4 4.1 10.0 85.1 52.6 42.3 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------