***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 10.8 6.9 63.0 48.2 42.4 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 7.6 7.1 64.5 46.7 40.8 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.7 9.1 7.6 64.6 47.2 41.5 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.2 14.4 8.0 59.6 48.8 41.7 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.5 12.0 8.3 62.4 45.1 41.0 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 13.2 9.7 69.9 49.6 42.0 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.4 7.2 67.3 47.7 42.2 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.6 13.0 9.9 70.5 50.5 42.0 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.8 10.8 8.9 66.1 49.1 41.8 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.3 10.0 70.3 51.7 42.6 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.9 12.3 8.3 66.0 47.9 41.9 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.0 8.5 67.6 50.4 41.1 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.7 19.6 8.6 64.2 48.6 40.0 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.4 17.3 10.6 72.2 51.5 43.6 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 8.5 7.8 55.4 44.8 38.2 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.1 10.8 8.1 62.8 48.0 39.9 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.2 8.4 6.9 61.7 42.0 39.9 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 14.6 11.7 73.8 53.7 43.7 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.9 8.7 7.2 63.6 47.2 40.3 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.1 13.5 69.6 51.3 41.3 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.3 9.2 7.9 64.0 47.4 42.1 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.6 10.0 7.3 60.5 40.9 38.7 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.6 11.1 7.9 65.2 48.4 41.0 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.4 12.6 10.3 71.8 51.6 43.1 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.4 8.4 7.9 60.0 45.3 40.5 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 7.3 12.2 8.7 65.7 45.8 40.4 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.8 7.7 62.9 46.2 41.6 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 10.8 8.0 59.0 48.4 40.4 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.6 20.0 12.7 73.9 52.8 43.0 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.2 7.2 65.6 48.0 42.1 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------