***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 1.0 1.1 1.5 10.9 20.5 18.6 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.8 1.0 1.2 9.2 20.0 17.4 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 0.3 0.7 1.6 10.6 21.0 17.7 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 1.3 1.2 2.2 13.3 19.3 17.3 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 0.4 0.0 2.2 13.3 18.0 16.0 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.4 2.2 16.1 21.9 18.4 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 0.9 2.1 1.3 10.2 20.7 18.2 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 1.0 1.2 1.7 10.0 19.1 15.7 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 0.4 0.0 2.5 15.0 18.0 17.4 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 0.4 0.4 2.2 12.5 19.2 17.0 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.9 12.3 19.4 18.5 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.7 11.6 20.2 17.7 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 0.8 1.5 2.1 14.3 22.4 16.7 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 2.0 2.3 2.2 11.5 19.1 16.4 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.3 1.7 11.0 17.3 11.3 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.8 1.9 13.0 21.1 16.3 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 0.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 19.2 17.9 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 0.8 0.7 2.2 11.3 18.2 16.1 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 0.6 1.4 1.3 9.4 20.6 17.2 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.7 7.8 15.3 11.9 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.1 2.1 13.3 19.1 17.6 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.2 1.3 9.5 19.6 18.2 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 0.7 0.7 1.6 10.3 18.3 15.7 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 0.9 0.8 2.0 11.4 18.7 16.2 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 0.3 0.5 2.1 12.7 19.6 16.9 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 0.6 0.1 1.3 8.7 19.8 14.2 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 0.3 0.7 1.9 12.4 19.6 17.5 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 0.8 0.6 2.0 13.1 19.4 15.5 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 1.7 1.1 2.0 10.2 17.0 14.8 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 1.2 1.2 1.2 9.2 17.9 16.4 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------