***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 10.8 10.5 9.9 1.5 75.1 71.1 8.3 9.4 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 10.1 10.5 10.0 1.7 77.5 73.1 7.5 8.9 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 11.2 11.5 10.2 1.8 77.9 73.5 8.6 10.1 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.1 8.0 1.9 81.2 75.7 3.2 4.4 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 11.3 11.8 8.6 1.9 79.0 74.1 9.0 10.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.7 11.2 7.6 1.6 78.7 71.5 8.4 9.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 9.7 10.2 9.7 1.5 76.6 71.6 7.1 8.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 4.6 5.5 8.2 2.3 81.7 78.4 1.4 2.4 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 11.7 12.2 9.5 2.0 79.6 74.7 8.8 10.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 11.3 12.1 8.8 2.2 80.9 76.5 7.9 10.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 11.9 12.7 8.5 1.9 80.2 74.8 8.6 10.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 11.1 11.7 8.4 2.0 80.7 76.4 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.4 12.2 8.0 1.6 79.2 71.6 9.5 10.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 12.0 12.8 9.9 2.2 80.4 75.4 8.8 10.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 9.6 10.2 8.7 1.9 82.9 77.2 7.0 8.2 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 12.2 13.0 8.1 1.7 79.8 72.3 9.9 10.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 9.4 9.8 9.7 1.7 76.7 72.8 6.6 8.3 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 9.5 10.3 8.8 2.4 80.9 76.8 6.5 8.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 10.4 10.8 10.2 1.8 78.8 73.9 7.7 9.2 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 8.7 10.7 7.2 2.5 82.7 79.5 6.3 6.9 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 11.5 12.0 9.9 1.8 78.8 73.5 8.7 10.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 10.0 10.3 9.9 1.8 77.7 73.5 7.0 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 10.6 11.2 10.4 2.0 80.3 74.8 7.4 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.0 13.1 9.8 2.2 80.5 75.5 9.8 11.0 11.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 10.2 10.5 8.7 1.6 77.3 72.7 8.0 9.0 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 10.4 10.7 7.8 1.8 79.8 75.0 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 11.3 11.5 9.3 1.5 75.2 70.9 8.9 10.0 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 10.3 11.0 8.4 1.9 81.9 75.7 7.3 8.8 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 7.9 9.2 8.2 2.4 81.0 77.7 5.4 6.7 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 10.2 10.5 10.0 1.7 76.9 72.7 7.7 9.0 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------