***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.2 10.0 8.5 1.1 65.5 59.7 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.1 9.2 8.6 1.4 66.4 61.1 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 12.3 11.0 8.7 1.3 65.6 60.6 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.6 6.4 1.1 65.8 61.1 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.7 10.9 6.8 1.1 65.5 60.8 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.2 5.9 0.8 65.4 59.9 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.6 9.1 8.4 1.3 66.4 60.7 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 4.5 3.3 6.3 1.2 65.7 62.7 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.5 11.9 7.6 1.2 65.1 61.1 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.6 10.4 6.9 1.3 65.2 62.1 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 12.4 10.4 6.7 1.1 64.8 61.3 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 12.1 11.5 6.6 1.1 64.2 61.6 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 12.3 11.4 6.1 0.8 64.3 60.1 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 12.6 11.1 8.2 1.6 64.9 62.1 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.2 6.7 1.2 62.8 61.9 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.6 6.3 1.0 65.4 60.4 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.1 8.5 8.3 1.3 65.2 61.0 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 9.2 8.7 6.9 1.4 65.0 62.8 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 11.6 9.6 8.8 1.4 66.2 61.4 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 8.6 7.8 5.2 1.3 65.7 62.9 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.0 11.2 8.1 1.2 64.9 60.1 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.9 9.5 8.5 1.4 63.7 60.8 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 11.2 9.6 9.0 1.5 65.9 61.8 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.9 11.0 8.1 1.5 65.6 62.2 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.0 7.0 1.1 65.1 60.4 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.4 5.9 0.7 63.9 59.9 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.6 11.2 7.8 1.0 65.7 59.9 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.9 6.6 1.2 64.6 61.4 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 8.4 7.8 6.3 1.4 64.9 62.7 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 11.0 9.5 8.6 1.3 66.3 60.8 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------