***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 11.5 10.3 1.0 65.4 60.5 6.6 8.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 11.0 10.3 10.3 1.2 66.9 61.7 6.9 8.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 13.0 11.5 10.5 1.2 65.8 61.8 7.2 9.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.5 8.2 1.2 67.4 62.2 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 12.7 10.9 8.7 1.2 66.9 61.7 7.6 8.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.6 7.6 0.8 62.5 58.0 7.2 8.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.1 10.1 1.0 65.6 60.5 6.2 8.1 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.0 3.5 8.0 1.3 66.5 62.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 13.7 11.5 9.5 1.3 65.5 61.7 8.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.2 11.4 8.7 1.3 66.5 61.8 6.9 9.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 13.3 11.9 8.5 1.2 65.2 61.2 7.1 9.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 8.2 1.1 64.0 60.6 7.7 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.9 7.8 0.8 60.8 58.2 7.6 8.8 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.8 12.8 9.9 1.3 66.8 61.2 8.1 9.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 11.1 9.8 8.5 1.2 68.0 62.8 6.5 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.8 8.1 1.0 63.7 59.7 8.1 9.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.4 9.9 10.0 1.1 67.3 61.6 6.7 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.3 8.6 1.3 66.6 61.5 6.3 7.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.3 10.6 1.3 66.9 62.3 7.0 8.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 10.3 9.5 6.9 1.4 68.7 62.1 3.1 6.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 13.1 11.3 10.0 1.2 66.0 61.6 7.8 9.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.1 10.2 1.2 67.6 62.5 7.0 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.7 10.8 10.7 1.3 66.4 62.4 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 13.8 12.3 9.8 1.3 67.1 61.5 8.3 9.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 11.4 9.7 8.9 1.1 64.6 61.4 6.8 8.2 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.3 7.6 0.8 61.4 58.6 6.7 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.5 10.6 9.6 1.0 64.5 60.2 7.2 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.8 8.4 1.2 66.8 61.8 7.1 9.3 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 10.2 8.2 8.0 1.3 66.5 61.4 3.3 6.1 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.2 10.4 1.1 66.2 61.4 6.4 8.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------