***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 13.7 16.4 13.9 3.1 87.1 82.7 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 13.5 15.0 14.1 3.4 89.7 86.7 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 14.6 17.5 14.5 3.7 90.2 87.5 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.0 10.7 12.7 4.5 93.2 91.6 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 14.6 17.4 13.6 4.3 89.2 88.5 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 14.3 16.8 12.4 4.4 89.3 86.6 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 13.0 14.3 13.7 3.2 87.1 83.9 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 6.5 9.6 13.8 5.8 97.6 96.0 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.5 18.7 14.7 4.6 92.6 91.4 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 14.5 17.7 14.3 5.4 95.5 94.1 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 14.9 18.4 13.8 4.6 89.9 89.4 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 14.5 18.2 13.8 5.2 94.5 93.2 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 14.2 16.8 13.3 4.2 86.8 85.7 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 16.3 20.2 15.0 4.8 95.3 93.2 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 12.1 15.1 14.5 4.7 94.3 93.7 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 15.2 16.8 13.1 4.1 87.1 85.3 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 13.0 16.0 13.8 3.5 92.1 88.7 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 12.7 17.9 14.1 5.6 96.8 95.2 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 14.0 16.6 14.4 3.6 90.9 88.3 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 12.1 15.4 13.0 6.3 99.6 97.4 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 14.8 17.8 14.8 4.1 90.9 88.9 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 13.6 17.1 14.1 3.6 93.0 90.3 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 14.3 17.4 14.7 4.0 93.4 90.7 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 15.8 19.9 14.8 4.8 95.1 92.7 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 12.9 15.7 13.3 3.5 88.5 84.7 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 13.6 17.4 13.1 4.9 96.2 93.0 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 13.9 15.9 13.4 3.1 86.1 81.2 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 12.1 14.0 13.7 4.6 92.4 91.0 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 11.9 15.0 13.7 6.0 98.3 96.5 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 13.4 15.2 14.1 3.4 88.3 85.4 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------