***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 2.4 3.2 3.7 1.0 66.2 65.1 0.6 2.1 3.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 2.8 3.5 3.8 1.4 75.6 70.6 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 4.6 5.0 3.7 1.3 74.8 69.7 2.1 3.5 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 -0.2 0.6 1.6 1.8 80.2 75.4 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 2.5 2.7 1.6 1.4 74.4 71.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 1.7 1.7 -0.2 1.3 72.8 70.0 -0.6 0.5 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 2.6 3.2 3.7 1.3 75.4 69.5 0.1 1.2 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -2.3 -2.1 0.4 1.7 77.1 71.9 -4.3 -3.5 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 3.1 3.5 2.2 1.4 74.6 70.5 0.7 1.6 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 2.5 2.8 1.1 1.6 76.2 71.3 0.3 1.2 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 2.5 2.5 1.2 1.5 74.1 71.4 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 1.3 1.7 0.8 1.4 73.0 69.7 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 1.9 1.8 0.3 1.1 67.6 66.5 -0.7 1.0 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 3.1 3.4 2.3 1.6 77.2 71.6 1.2 1.9 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.5 77.8 73.9 0.1 0.9 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 2.9 3.0 0.6 1.3 70.7 69.3 0.6 1.7 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 2.5 3.2 3.8 1.5 78.8 72.4 0.0 1.2 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.7 76.2 71.1 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 2.9 3.3 3.8 1.4 75.8 71.1 0.3 1.5 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -1.7 -1.5 -0.8 1.7 76.4 70.3 -3.4 -2.6 -2.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 2.7 3.0 3.2 1.3 73.8 69.5 0.5 1.6 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.7 3.8 1.5 77.4 71.8 0.0 0.9 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 2.5 3.2 3.5 1.4 77.2 72.0 0.7 1.2 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 77.7 71.9 0.4 0.9 1.7 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.2 72.7 69.1 0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 1.8 1.8 0.4 1.2 67.8 67.2 -0.1 0.7 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 3.3 3.4 3.1 1.0 69.4 66.1 0.3 2.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.7 79.9 75.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 74.0 69.4 -1.9 -0.8 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.2 74.5 69.2 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------