***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 1.3 1.4 1.8 0.7 58.1 56.5 -0.2 0.9 2.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 0.3 0.5 1.6 0.8 57.6 55.8 -1.2 -0.3 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 2.1 2.3 1.5 0.8 59.0 57.3 0.4 1.6 3.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -2.5 -1.1 0.7 56.1 57.6 -4.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 0.1 0.0 -1.0 0.8 56.3 57.1 -0.7 -0.3 1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -0.3 -0.7 -2.8 0.4 50.0 53.3 -2.1 -0.8 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.7 57.8 55.3 -1.1 0.0 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -3.2 -3.1 -1.9 1.0 56.3 57.1 -4.7 -3.5 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 0.9 0.7 -0.1 0.8 56.3 56.6 -0.5 0.5 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 0.3 0.3 -1.2 1.0 56.3 56.8 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 0.3 0.3 -1.3 0.8 55.8 56.5 -1.5 0.0 0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 0.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.8 55.4 56.2 -2.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 0.2 0.1 -1.9 0.6 54.0 55.2 -1.5 -0.2 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.1 55.5 57.9 -0.5 0.7 2.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.6 -0.4 0.6 56.3 57.4 -1.0 0.0 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 1.0 1.1 -1.8 0.6 54.1 55.7 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -0.1 0.5 1.5 0.7 57.7 54.7 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.6 1.1 55.2 57.0 -2.8 -0.8 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 0.5 0.7 1.6 0.8 57.7 56.5 -1.0 0.0 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -3.9 -3.3 -3.0 1.4 58.2 58.1 -5.9 -4.5 -2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.7 56.4 56.8 -0.7 0.1 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.8 58.1 55.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.9 58.2 57.4 -0.6 0.0 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 0.2 0.8 -0.2 1.0 56.4 57.5 -1.4 -0.2 1.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.7 56.7 57.6 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 0.1 -0.2 -1.7 0.7 52.2 53.8 -2.1 -0.4 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 57.1 57.0 -1.3 0.6 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 0.7 55.4 57.0 -1.7 -0.8 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.1 1.3 56.0 57.4 -3.9 -1.5 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.8 58.0 56.4 -1.0 0.2 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------