***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 48 52 100 4.1 4.5 6.5 2.0 68.4 67.8 1.7 3.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 4.3 4.6 6.9 2.9 78.4 78.8 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 6.1 6.3 7.0 2.6 77.0 77.0 3.2 4.1 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 1.8 4.4 6.1 4.3 92.9 91.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 4.2 4.6 5.6 3.2 81.0 81.5 0.1 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 3.3 4.9 3.9 3.6 87.2 86.7 -0.8 1.5 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.4 6.8 2.8 74.7 75.6 1.0 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.9 88.1 86.9 -4.0 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 4.4 4.8 5.7 3.0 83.2 81.8 1.1 2.8 3.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 4.2 4.8 5.0 3.6 86.1 85.3 0.1 1.9 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 3.4 4.6 5.3 3.5 85.8 85.3 0.0 1.9 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 2.9 3.4 4.6 3.4 83.2 82.1 -1.0 1.0 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 3.8 3.9 3.9 2.8 76.7 77.5 -0.3 1.6 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 4.9 5.2 6.0 3.2 82.0 83.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 3.5 5.7 6.8 3.6 90.8 89.0 1.2 2.0 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 5.0 5.1 4.5 3.2 80.9 81.5 0.8 3.0 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 4.0 4.8 7.1 3.4 86.4 84.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 2.6 3.3 4.5 3.7 87.0 86.0 -0.9 0.8 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 4.5 4.8 6.9 2.8 80.3 79.7 0.9 2.7 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.7 85.8 85.1 -3.9 -1.3 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 4.4 4.7 6.7 2.8 79.7 78.8 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 4.0 4.4 7.0 3.0 84.3 82.5 0.6 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 4.3 5.0 6.9 2.9 82.7 81.5 0.8 2.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 3.4 4.4 5.9 3.3 84.8 83.9 0.3 1.4 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 4.5 4.8 6.3 2.6 74.8 74.8 0.9 1.9 3.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 3.7 4.1 4.2 3.3 79.8 80.4 -0.4 2.2 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 4.6 4.7 6.0 2.1 68.6 68.6 1.6 2.9 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 2.9 5.8 6.3 4.2 93.1 91.3 -0.3 0.7 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.3 82.8 81.6 -1.1 0.2 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 4.3 4.6 6.9 2.6 75.1 75.3 1.5 2.7 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------