***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 55.8 61.8 72.2 142.5 78.9 72.6 35.8 44.4 52.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 52.6 68.5 64.7 147.5 82.3 72.8 29.1 38.5 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 63.5 72.0 69.8 139.7 77.8 70.8 35.7 48.3 62.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 74.9 78.9 77.1 127.5 70.9 65.4 42.7 60.0 77.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 53.3 68.1 73.7 123.3 68.6 63.5 33.2 48.6 65.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 49.5 67.0 72.1 124.5 66.6 64.0 37.9 45.1 65.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 54.3 66.2 63.7 146.3 79.9 71.7 30.6 37.7 51.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 82.8 103.8 76.1 119.0 66.8 60.8 51.9 74.9 103.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 59.4 65.0 72.9 122.1 72.4 63.0 38.8 50.0 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 62.0 67.2 73.9 115.8 65.0 59.5 36.9 57.8 68.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 67.5 73.0 71.1 117.9 65.4 60.5 32.8 63.6 73.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 68.9 92.6 72.0 121.6 67.5 61.9 41.3 61.9 91.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 62.9 77.1 75.6 121.6 65.8 62.1 40.0 57.9 77.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 75.4 86.3 82.1 131.3 73.7 67.3 43.9 58.0 80.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 91.1 86.1 76.4 128.1 69.5 65.0 48.2 70.6 83.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 54.6 73.5 73.2 122.7 65.5 62.5 38.4 49.3 74.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 57.7 70.7 61.4 144.5 80.3 71.5 33.9 39.5 58.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 65.6 75.9 77.5 118.3 68.1 60.2 38.5 61.2 74.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 61.5 79.3 66.4 146.6 81.7 73.0 26.5 46.3 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 86.8 87.6 99.3 126.2 72.8 64.2 44.1 69.7 79.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 61.3 63.6 72.5 129.1 72.6 66.3 40.4 50.3 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 62.1 73.6 65.0 142.6 80.5 72.4 33.9 46.2 62.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 64.3 78.1 69.9 142.9 80.2 72.0 29.3 42.1 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 76.5 76.8 74.6 126.5 72.8 64.7 44.4 54.3 74.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 54.4 58.0 78.6 134.6 73.8 69.3 32.1 42.8 55.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 70.2 76.8 81.0 132.1 74.0 67.9 39.7 56.3 73.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 59.1 66.8 74.8 140.2 76.9 71.9 36.4 41.3 53.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 73.7 79.8 72.8 124.3 69.1 63.4 40.6 53.5 77.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 97.4 116.6 84.3 121.2 68.9 61.7 58.9 89.3 115.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 52.5 62.6 66.8 146.5 81.1 72.6 30.0 40.4 45.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------