***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 10.6 11.1 101.1 58.5 49.0 3.5 6.2 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.9 9.4 95.8 57.4 49.8 1.6 4.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.0 16.8 10.8 99.6 58.2 49.0 3.1 5.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.0 13.2 12.0 96.8 59.2 47.8 4.7 9.6 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.8 13.2 11.9 90.9 55.0 44.9 2.1 9.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 8.9 11.9 88.9 61.0 48.2 2.5 7.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.7 9.1 95.0 60.6 48.8 2.6 5.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 15.3 13.0 90.5 54.9 46.7 5.4 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.7 6.2 12.4 92.9 55.3 45.6 1.8 4.5 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.2 13.1 92.5 54.4 46.2 2.4 4.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.8 10.5 11.7 88.1 56.7 45.3 2.6 5.6 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.9 11.7 87.3 55.7 46.5 2.7 10.0 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.8 13.1 12.3 88.8 60.2 47.8 4.1 9.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.1 12.4 91.2 52.3 46.8 3.1 11.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 19.0 16.9 12.5 106.2 63.3 53.4 4.4 11.1 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.0 13.3 11.4 86.0 57.9 45.8 2.3 8.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.3 8.9 93.5 60.2 49.1 2.3 4.3 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 17.2 14.0 98.1 59.1 47.3 2.4 8.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.2 9.6 95.4 56.4 49.4 2.0 6.5 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 15.3 17.9 101.9 61.0 48.3 1.9 6.7 20.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.3 14.1 11.5 96.0 57.0 46.4 3.8 6.9 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.6 9.6 92.8 57.1 47.9 2.2 7.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.4 8.3 10.0 91.3 54.0 47.7 1.2 5.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.8 12.3 96.2 56.4 48.0 4.3 10.9 15.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.1 12.1 12.0 96.7 56.6 47.3 2.2 10.2 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.5 12.5 92.3 56.8 48.0 3.6 8.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.1 6.5 11.4 98.1 55.6 48.4 2.8 4.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.2 11.5 95.2 60.6 49.0 1.9 10.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.9 16.6 15.5 102.9 59.3 48.1 3.5 8.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.9 9.9 97.4 57.8 49.4 2.4 4.7 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------