***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.5 12.0 82.4 54.3 47.2 2.3 4.9 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.0 10.2 78.5 51.2 43.8 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.9 11.6 78.4 57.0 44.3 2.6 6.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.5 12.9 84.2 53.6 44.0 4.0 8.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.3 13.1 80.3 53.9 43.3 2.3 4.6 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.5 12.0 88.9 53.3 44.4 1.4 8.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.2 10.2 79.2 53.0 43.8 2.4 6.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 17.6 13.3 81.5 52.1 43.2 5.7 12.4 25.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.4 14.0 80.1 55.4 42.9 0.9 5.6 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.6 14.1 81.4 54.1 43.6 2.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.5 12.5 81.0 50.2 43.1 1.6 8.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.6 12.0 81.8 51.5 42.8 2.2 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 4.8 12.8 89.2 51.8 45.4 2.4 4.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.7 14.2 14.8 82.2 55.8 44.2 5.3 12.7 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.9 13.8 91.7 61.7 46.8 2.1 4.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 5.3 11.7 80.5 47.7 41.1 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.5 9.6 79.2 51.3 44.3 2.2 7.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.9 14.7 80.3 53.3 43.0 5.1 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.9 10.6 79.2 53.1 43.9 3.4 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 12.1 17.2 81.7 51.4 43.4 3.8 11.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.3 13.0 80.3 55.2 44.2 2.6 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.2 10.8 10.2 81.6 52.1 43.8 6.1 10.3 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.4 11.5 79.9 55.5 43.9 4.5 8.5 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.2 13.3 77.7 52.9 43.0 3.5 8.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.9 13.5 85.9 57.0 46.6 2.1 6.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.5 12.1 80.9 47.8 41.9 2.7 5.7 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.3 12.5 84.8 56.1 47.0 2.0 6.4 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.2 12.2 84.8 54.7 43.8 1.6 4.6 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.6 19.2 15.7 81.2 53.9 43.4 7.0 16.2 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.5 10.6 77.7 53.2 43.6 2.3 6.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------