***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 17.2 16.6 141.4 74.0 60.3 5.7 9.1 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 21.8 15.8 163.0 77.9 65.1 2.5 6.3 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.0 26.2 16.8 143.4 71.7 61.2 5.5 9.0 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.8 25.8 16.4 111.0 64.9 53.1 3.7 15.0 26.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.5 19.8 16.4 112.4 61.8 54.5 4.7 12.8 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.2 18.9 12.5 87.9 53.9 45.4 5.5 17.5 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.2 18.4 16.1 169.6 80.5 65.5 2.8 5.7 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 25.8 15.2 101.0 59.8 49.7 5.3 15.9 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.6 19.6 15.9 114.7 63.2 52.3 6.0 11.0 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 23.2 15.8 106.2 62.2 50.8 5.9 11.8 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 19.1 21.1 16.7 111.4 65.2 54.3 5.9 15.6 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.1 26.4 14.8 105.0 61.0 51.4 2.2 20.4 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.6 25.2 15.8 107.6 60.2 52.8 7.4 15.6 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 21.2 26.2 18.2 124.9 63.4 55.0 7.0 15.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 21.0 15.1 108.5 64.4 52.2 1.9 8.2 21.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.3 20.1 14.5 99.8 59.1 49.9 3.9 16.0 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.8 17.3 15.5 162.2 77.9 64.0 2.4 7.8 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.5 21.4 15.7 102.8 58.0 48.7 5.8 13.4 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 18.0 22.7 15.8 156.7 75.2 64.5 4.6 7.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.4 28.6 21.8 115.1 63.2 55.1 5.9 17.5 30.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.2 17.9 16.2 120.6 67.3 54.9 4.3 11.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.8 16.3 15.8 153.0 74.5 63.8 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.0 22.4 16.1 143.7 71.8 61.0 3.5 8.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.2 19.4 16.6 119.4 63.6 53.4 4.2 11.9 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.7 21.5 18.8 131.6 71.3 59.2 3.3 10.6 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 18.7 21.7 13.5 91.9 58.6 48.6 10.1 14.6 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.5 21.0 18.1 143.8 75.0 61.5 4.4 7.5 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.7 19.1 14.8 105.8 64.3 50.9 2.4 9.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.0 33.9 17.4 105.4 59.9 50.7 7.1 27.4 39.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 18.1 23.3 16.5 164.0 77.5 64.9 2.8 6.5 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------