***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 15.7 30.9 32.5 242.3 92.2 85.9 2.9 4.6 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 21.2 42.9 29.2 258.3 94.4 88.1 3.0 4.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 15.0 26.3 30.6 243.0 92.0 85.9 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 14.6 36.0 35.7 199.8 86.3 81.7 2.3 7.4 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 16.2 23.8 32.3 205.2 88.6 81.5 1.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 15.6 24.3 35.6 212.7 86.1 81.7 0.7 4.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 19.3 30.1 28.3 244.5 90.6 86.1 2.9 7.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 23.2 39.4 34.6 190.4 85.7 79.4 5.6 12.0 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 13.9 21.6 30.6 203.0 90.2 81.4 0.3 6.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 15.9 22.3 30.8 179.3 85.6 77.7 1.0 7.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 15.0 21.1 30.3 181.6 84.2 78.4 0.1 5.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 14.7 22.7 33.5 196.5 85.8 80.1 0.5 5.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 13.7 20.1 34.7 180.3 81.6 77.2 0.5 5.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 22.4 31.3 36.7 224.0 90.6 83.6 4.3 7.0 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 12.6 23.0 35.0 185.3 85.2 80.4 0.7 2.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 13.6 19.2 35.6 206.4 85.5 80.8 0.4 3.9 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 22.5 54.3 27.4 242.2 93.7 86.6 1.8 5.9 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 15.9 27.0 33.1 188.8 88.3 80.1 2.0 6.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 23.3 31.8 30.4 258.5 94.3 88.8 2.1 5.2 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 22.4 34.2 42.4 203.0 86.6 82.3 3.0 5.4 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 13.4 22.8 31.7 218.4 88.9 82.7 1.8 5.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 29.8 44.0 29.4 236.3 94.9 88.2 2.1 4.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 22.2 33.7 32.4 260.5 93.3 89.0 2.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 12.7 29.4 32.4 213.1 91.0 82.4 1.3 4.5 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 11.4 21.8 34.3 214.8 86.7 82.2 1.1 4.4 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 14.6 21.3 42.8 237.7 89.2 85.6 0.2 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 13.6 20.6 32.8 228.5 89.3 84.5 2.4 5.3 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 12.0 19.8 34.2 190.7 85.2 80.1 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 24.9 39.3 35.8 192.0 87.6 80.7 4.0 9.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 20.3 31.0 29.8 253.6 94.3 87.7 2.3 5.3 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------