***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.7 8.9 0.0 48.3 49.1 8.3 9.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.8 8.4 -0.5 38.8 42.7 7.5 9.2 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.4 9.1 -0.1 48.8 48.0 8.7 10.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.4 6.5 0.4 53.4 53.9 3.0 4.2 4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.6 7.7 0.4 55.6 54.0 9.0 10.2 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.8 10.7 7.5 1.2 63.5 63.1 8.6 9.5 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.6 8.4 -0.5 40.9 43.2 7.2 9.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 3.2 3.1 7.1 0.6 54.5 57.0 1.8 2.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.1 8.4 0.4 54.9 54.2 8.7 11.0 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.6 7.7 0.5 53.7 55.7 7.9 10.4 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.1 8.0 0.5 55.5 55.3 8.8 10.6 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.9 7.5 0.6 54.8 56.8 9.0 10.6 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.8 11.0 7.9 0.8 57.5 57.9 9.4 10.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.8 8.2 -0.2 45.9 47.7 8.8 10.9 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.3 7.8 0.3 52.5 53.1 7.2 8.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 11.4 11.4 7.8 0.7 57.0 56.8 9.9 11.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.8 8.1 -0.6 37.2 41.3 6.6 8.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.2 7.4 0.5 51.8 55.1 6.7 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.1 8.6 -0.5 39.5 43.3 7.7 9.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.5 6.0 0.7 54.6 57.3 6.5 7.4 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.5 8.9 0.2 51.6 52.0 8.7 10.4 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.4 7.8 8.1 -0.6 36.4 40.7 6.9 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.3 8.9 -0.3 42.3 45.2 7.4 9.9 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.6 8.4 0.1 48.3 51.1 9.7 11.7 12.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.3 7.8 0.2 51.8 51.8 8.2 9.2 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.3 10.6 7.4 0.9 59.6 60.6 9.1 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.3 8.5 0.1 49.8 50.2 9.0 10.3 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.9 7.2 0.5 54.4 55.6 7.7 8.5 9.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.0 6.9 0.5 52.1 55.1 5.3 7.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.9 8.6 -0.4 42.9 44.3 7.7 9.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------