***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.3 7.7 6.8 0.4 53.6 54.7 5.1 7.5 9.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.2 7.0 6.4 0.1 51.9 52.0 5.4 6.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 9.7 9.1 7.0 0.3 53.4 53.6 5.8 9.0 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -0.1 2.7 4.1 0.3 54.5 54.1 0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.9 8.3 5.1 0.3 54.6 53.8 6.0 8.2 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.1 5.0 0.9 57.1 58.0 5.7 7.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.2 7.1 6.4 0.2 51.6 52.5 5.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.1 4.7 0.5 53.2 55.3 0.3 2.0 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.7 9.6 5.9 0.4 55.7 54.4 5.9 9.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.6 5.3 0.5 54.1 55.4 6.3 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 5.1 0.3 53.5 53.7 5.9 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.1 4.9 0.4 53.0 54.3 6.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.8 4.9 0.7 55.0 56.1 6.2 8.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 10.3 9.2 6.1 0.4 56.5 53.5 6.4 8.2 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 7.7 7.2 5.0 0.3 52.3 55.0 5.5 7.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 4.9 0.5 55.2 54.6 6.7 9.5 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.4 6.2 0.0 52.4 51.5 4.8 6.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.3 5.3 0.6 55.9 56.5 4.2 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 4.7 7.5 6.6 0.1 51.1 52.0 4.9 7.5 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.2 4.1 1.0 57.5 58.8 3.1 4.1 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.1 8.9 6.4 0.3 54.4 54.2 6.2 8.8 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.1 6.6 6.1 0.0 50.5 50.8 5.1 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 5.1 8.1 6.8 0.2 52.6 52.4 6.1 7.8 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.8 9.7 6.0 0.4 55.6 54.7 6.5 9.6 10.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.0 7.4 5.4 0.5 55.8 55.6 5.4 6.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.6 4.9 0.8 54.0 57.4 6.6 7.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.7 6.4 0.5 55.4 55.5 5.5 8.2 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.1 7.2 4.5 0.3 53.1 54.1 5.2 7.0 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.4 4.9 0.8 55.4 57.1 3.0 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.7 7.9 6.5 0.2 52.9 52.7 5.2 7.5 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------