***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.2 10.4 9.2 1.3 63.3 62.7 6.1 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.6 9.0 1.1 60.4 60.2 6.0 8.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.8 9.5 1.3 62.8 62.1 7.6 9.5 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.7 6.5 1.1 65.4 61.5 1.4 3.3 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.2 7.5 1.3 63.3 62.0 7.0 9.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.3 7.3 1.5 64.4 62.8 6.4 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.0 9.0 1.1 61.4 60.3 6.0 8.0 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 4.6 3.9 7.1 1.4 60.4 61.8 0.1 3.1 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.5 8.4 1.5 61.8 62.8 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.3 7.8 1.5 61.2 62.5 6.9 9.1 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 7.6 1.3 61.2 61.1 6.8 9.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.7 7.2 1.1 58.8 59.7 7.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.0 7.1 1.2 57.9 60.2 7.9 10.0 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 8.8 1.4 61.3 60.5 7.7 10.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 9.9 8.9 7.2 1.0 65.7 60.9 4.6 7.6 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.5 7.3 1.2 60.9 60.4 8.2 10.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.2 8.9 1.0 61.9 59.9 5.4 8.1 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.7 7.9 1.6 63.5 62.5 5.6 7.1 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 9.2 1.1 59.9 60.2 6.5 8.6 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 8.4 8.1 6.2 1.6 62.9 63.2 3.8 6.0 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.9 8.9 1.4 63.6 63.0 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.1 9.8 8.8 1.0 60.6 59.5 5.6 8.9 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 11.5 9.5 9.4 1.1 59.4 60.4 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.0 8.7 1.5 62.3 61.9 8.0 10.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.9 7.7 1.4 66.1 63.3 6.8 8.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 10.9 9.9 6.9 1.1 58.4 61.0 6.8 9.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.1 11.8 8.8 1.4 64.1 63.2 7.4 9.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.5 9.3 6.9 1.1 66.6 61.2 6.6 7.9 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.8 7.4 1.6 62.5 62.6 4.1 6.3 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.9 9.1 1.1 60.2 60.8 6.3 8.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------