***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.0 10.0 1.0 61.9 59.0 7.2 10.1 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.5 9.7 0.5 58.8 55.3 7.0 9.1 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.7 10.4 1.0 64.3 58.7 7.0 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.2 6.6 7.6 1.3 64.2 61.3 1.3 4.2 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 10.7 10.9 8.9 1.4 62.6 60.9 6.8 10.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 9.9 12.3 8.4 2.2 66.7 65.0 7.8 9.3 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.8 9.5 0.5 58.2 54.7 6.7 9.4 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 2.8 3.8 8.3 1.9 65.8 64.1 0.8 1.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.2 9.8 1.5 65.5 61.5 7.3 10.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.8 11.3 9.0 1.8 65.4 62.8 6.8 10.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 11.0 11.5 9.4 1.6 62.1 61.5 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.7 12.6 8.7 1.8 64.1 63.2 7.1 10.0 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 10.2 11.0 9.0 1.7 59.1 61.6 8.4 9.5 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.9 9.9 1.3 65.2 60.1 7.2 10.6 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.8 8.9 1.1 59.4 60.9 7.9 8.7 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 11.3 12.0 8.9 1.6 59.9 61.6 8.2 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.2 9.3 0.5 57.9 55.0 6.9 8.7 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.4 8.7 1.8 65.5 62.9 6.5 8.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.8 9.9 0.6 60.8 56.1 6.9 9.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 7.3 9.0 7.1 2.0 63.1 63.6 4.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.7 10.2 1.3 64.3 60.7 6.8 10.2 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.0 9.5 0.5 58.0 55.4 7.0 9.4 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.7 10.2 0.8 64.4 57.6 7.1 9.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.6 12.2 9.9 1.5 66.7 61.1 7.8 10.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 9.6 10.3 9.0 1.2 60.8 60.3 6.4 9.1 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 9.9 11.5 8.2 1.8 66.6 62.5 7.9 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 10.5 10.7 9.6 1.1 61.3 59.4 7.5 10.0 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.2 8.4 1.5 63.8 62.8 8.0 9.3 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.6 8.1 1.8 62.6 62.1 3.5 6.6 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.9 9.8 0.6 60.0 55.6 6.6 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------