***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9.6 9.2 9.5 -2.7 17.4 24.8 9.9 12.5 13.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 8.1 6.0 8.6 -3.7 12.8 18.3 9.0 11.0 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 9.5 9.3 9.5 -3.0 18.1 23.8 10.2 12.4 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.8 4.0 7.8 -1.3 34.3 37.0 3.8 5.6 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 9.6 10.1 9.3 -1.5 32.2 37.0 10.1 12.7 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.3 11.0 9.3 0.0 44.4 50.2 9.3 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 7.8 5.9 8.5 -3.6 13.6 18.4 9.3 10.9 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.4 8.2 -1.3 34.3 37.8 3.4 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 10.2 10.1 9.7 -1.9 27.5 33.0 10.5 13.5 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 10.1 9.8 8.6 -1.8 30.7 34.3 9.9 12.3 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.5 10.0 -1.2 34.8 39.4 10.4 13.5 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 10.0 9.5 9.3 -0.8 35.2 41.6 9.3 12.5 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.1 10.5 10.5 -0.6 35.8 44.1 10.0 12.3 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 9.7 8.8 8.2 -3.7 18.6 22.0 11.3 12.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 8.7 8.9 9.9 -1.2 27.6 34.7 9.5 10.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.3 9.9 -0.7 35.7 43.2 10.8 13.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 7.8 5.5 7.8 -3.9 10.1 15.9 9.1 10.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 9.2 8.0 7.6 -2.3 26.8 32.0 8.2 11.6 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 8.6 6.7 8.8 -3.6 14.1 19.0 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.6 6.5 -1.7 33.8 34.5 7.5 9.7 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 9.6 9.9 10.0 -2.3 23.9 29.5 10.1 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 8.6 6.5 8.0 -3.9 10.7 16.4 9.5 11.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 9.0 8.4 8.9 -3.5 15.8 20.4 10.0 11.7 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 10.3 9.5 8.8 -3.0 21.1 26.7 10.8 13.5 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 8.8 8.8 9.1 -2.2 22.9 29.5 9.3 12.0 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.8 9.6 0.0 42.9 48.5 10.5 12.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 8.9 9.0 9.2 -2.6 19.0 26.1 10.3 12.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.4 9.1 -0.9 35.1 40.2 8.7 11.0 12.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.2 5.1 7.1 -2.2 27.4 31.9 5.5 9.1 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 8.2 6.9 8.9 -3.4 14.8 20.0 9.5 11.1 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------