***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.9 3.7 0.5 57.9 56.3 1.0 2.3 3.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.0 3.0 0.2 54.0 52.7 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.0 3.5 0.3 55.2 54.3 2.1 3.7 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -1.3 1.3 0.8 60.1 59.2 -2.8 -1.9 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 1.5 1.7 2.2 0.8 58.8 59.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 1.0 1.4 0.5 1.3 65.6 65.0 -0.5 0.8 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.2 53.6 52.8 0.4 1.4 2.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -3.0 -2.9 0.5 0.9 60.8 59.9 -4.3 -3.3 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.5 2.4 0.7 59.3 58.7 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 57.0 58.3 0.5 1.4 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 1.4 1.5 1.8 0.9 62.0 60.2 0.0 1.0 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 66.5 61.8 -1.1 0.4 1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.2 65.9 63.5 -0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.2 50.0 51.8 1.4 2.1 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 1.7 1.8 2.5 0.6 59.3 58.8 0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 2.2 2.5 1.4 1.1 64.1 62.6 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.3 2.8 0.1 51.7 50.7 0.5 1.3 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 54.8 55.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.0 3.0 0.2 53.9 52.7 0.7 1.7 2.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.0 -0.6 1.0 60.6 59.6 -3.3 -2.3 -1.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.2 3.3 0.6 57.3 57.8 0.6 1.9 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.5 1.0 2.7 0.0 49.7 50.2 0.2 1.0 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 1.9 1.8 2.9 0.2 54.0 52.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.3 1.6 0.3 52.1 53.2 0.7 1.2 2.0 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.7 2.9 0.7 60.9 58.0 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 1.3 2.3 1.3 1.4 67.9 65.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 2.7 3.3 3.4 0.6 59.3 57.1 0.5 2.2 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 60.6 60.7 -0.8 -0.3 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 53.5 55.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.3 3.2 0.2 54.2 53.5 0.6 2.0 3.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------