***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.2 5.2 -0.7 38.2 42.8 1.9 3.1 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.4 4.0 -1.4 34.2 35.5 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.1 3.6 5.1 -0.8 36.8 40.5 3.4 4.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.0 -0.6 3.2 0.1 52.3 53.0 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.4 4.8 0.3 56.9 55.1 0.3 1.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 3.9 4.9 3.7 1.7 76.1 72.1 -0.4 1.6 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.6 2.0 4.0 -1.3 35.3 36.4 1.8 2.4 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -0.6 2.9 0.7 60.8 59.2 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.8 4.6 0.2 55.6 52.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.5 3.2 0.3 55.5 53.9 1.3 1.8 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.8 4.7 0.7 61.6 59.6 0.9 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 2.7 3.2 4.2 1.2 68.6 65.4 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 4.0 4.6 4.9 1.7 74.4 71.2 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 1.9 2.0 3.0 -1.3 28.2 36.0 2.4 3.2 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.2 4.6 -0.1 48.8 49.2 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 4.9 4.9 4.6 1.3 69.6 66.4 2.1 3.1 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 0.5 0.7 3.3 -1.8 24.6 30.8 1.6 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.5 2.5 -0.2 45.6 49.1 -0.1 0.6 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.0 4.1 -1.3 32.9 35.6 2.0 2.5 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -1.3 1.9 0.5 57.1 57.2 -3.0 -1.6 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.3 5.4 -0.2 49.4 48.7 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 0.2 0.3 3.5 -1.8 22.6 28.9 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 0.7 1.6 4.2 -1.2 31.2 36.5 1.7 2.0 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 2.7 1.5 3.6 -0.7 39.0 43.4 1.3 2.1 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.2 1.8 5.0 -0.3 45.9 46.8 1.2 2.3 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 4.5 5.6 4.9 2.0 77.4 73.3 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.0 5.0 -0.5 42.8 45.1 1.8 2.5 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 1.4 1.3 3.9 0.4 57.6 56.6 -0.4 0.7 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -1.0 0.5 1.8 -0.1 46.5 49.5 -0.5 0.6 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.5 2.1 4.4 -1.2 36.6 37.6 2.1 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------