***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 48.1 52.7 56.1 106.7 57.5 55.8 33.2 45.5 57.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 46.7 48.8 49.3 105.6 58.2 54.9 27.9 43.0 54.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 57.1 60.2 54.4 107.4 59.0 55.8 37.1 53.3 62.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 72.1 77.0 74.0 126.7 71.2 64.9 44.3 61.0 75.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 56.0 62.2 61.0 109.4 61.0 57.6 35.1 48.4 65.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 51.3 58.6 58.4 109.1 61.8 56.3 37.6 45.2 61.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 43.0 47.7 49.6 106.0 59.7 55.1 28.5 37.5 56.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 89.8 105.5 66.3 109.3 63.2 56.7 50.7 78.9 109.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 55.1 53.4 59.7 107.5 59.8 56.3 37.6 49.5 64.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 64.1 64.1 63.4 106.9 60.5 55.1 39.9 59.0 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 65.4 68.9 60.6 109.5 62.7 57.0 36.3 59.4 70.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 74.9 85.8 61.8 111.4 64.3 58.5 44.4 68.5 85.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 66.0 70.4 63.1 109.8 61.6 57.6 42.3 57.9 79.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 72.6 72.3 64.9 108.6 60.6 55.6 49.1 67.2 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 83.7 93.0 82.4 140.5 76.5 67.9 48.0 61.1 80.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 56.2 69.9 61.7 112.5 63.1 58.9 38.8 49.6 72.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 42.8 40.8 46.7 102.5 56.2 53.4 29.7 36.0 53.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 69.2 76.5 66.8 108.4 62.1 55.7 44.1 64.8 79.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 53.3 54.8 50.6 106.4 58.4 55.4 28.0 48.6 59.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 83.4 85.8 85.9 111.9 66.4 58.3 46.0 77.2 84.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 52.3 53.4 57.6 106.8 58.3 56.3 39.8 48.3 62.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 51.7 48.4 49.1 102.9 56.1 53.5 29.2 45.6 62.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 52.3 50.6 53.8 108.5 60.7 56.5 29.6 47.5 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 63.4 67.0 60.9 108.4 60.6 55.7 46.3 52.0 73.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 46.1 47.1 62.7 106.7 57.0 56.5 31.7 42.7 54.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 59.1 73.1 69.2 118.0 67.5 62.4 38.2 54.1 72.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 44.6 48.3 58.8 106.3 56.9 55.7 34.3 39.6 57.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 71.6 80.4 72.4 131.1 72.0 65.2 39.9 54.8 68.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 106.9 117.2 73.7 110.3 64.3 56.8 66.1 101.0 117.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 47.3 44.7 52.1 108.4 59.7 56.3 23.3 43.4 50.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------