***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.7 14.2 114.6 66.5 55.2 3.5 6.2 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.5 11.1 13.1 120.3 66.6 55.6 1.8 3.9 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.2 17.3 13.8 113.1 66.1 54.5 3.6 6.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 15.7 14.5 106.1 62.9 54.4 5.4 9.6 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.8 13.8 100.0 57.7 51.6 2.0 9.8 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.2 13.4 104.6 58.0 51.1 3.3 6.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.9 10.6 13.1 119.4 65.9 55.4 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.9 16.3 15.6 105.7 59.5 53.6 6.5 8.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.0 6.2 14.4 100.3 58.4 51.3 1.6 4.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.6 15.4 102.7 58.5 52.3 3.7 7.7 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.5 13.2 13.6 102.7 57.9 52.2 3.2 9.0 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.4 11.1 13.8 106.9 58.3 53.1 6.7 9.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.5 12.0 14.3 107.4 56.0 51.8 4.6 9.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 14.9 16.9 116.6 65.9 54.5 4.0 10.2 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.4 22.5 14.5 106.4 66.1 56.2 3.9 12.5 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.9 13.6 106.6 58.2 52.7 3.8 7.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.2 9.9 12.5 114.2 64.5 55.0 1.9 6.0 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.7 17.2 109.7 63.0 54.4 6.3 10.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.8 13.4 120.2 66.8 55.9 1.5 6.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 21.9 22.4 115.5 68.6 57.6 3.8 7.5 18.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.0 14.7 14.1 105.7 62.3 52.9 2.7 7.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.6 10.7 12.8 113.1 63.5 55.8 1.3 7.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.3 13.6 14.1 119.4 68.5 55.8 1.5 5.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.6 15.7 112.0 63.3 54.0 4.8 9.0 11.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.1 15.4 110.7 64.0 54.6 3.0 9.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.8 8.9 14.3 109.3 58.2 53.5 3.7 8.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.3 14.9 114.4 65.7 55.0 3.3 5.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.4 13.6 105.3 63.3 54.5 4.8 10.4 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.6 21.1 19.1 113.7 66.8 55.3 6.4 13.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.6 11.6 13.5 119.6 67.0 55.3 2.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------