***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.3 12.1 83.9 56.3 47.9 2.3 5.3 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.6 11.4 87.0 57.3 48.2 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.9 11.7 84.1 55.5 47.7 2.1 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 15.1 13.7 96.4 60.3 51.0 3.7 11.0 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.0 13.2 95.5 59.2 49.3 2.1 6.3 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.1 16.0 12.2 93.6 59.6 49.6 3.5 8.3 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.8 11.4 88.5 58.3 48.3 1.0 6.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.0 22.4 13.8 93.4 56.3 47.4 5.7 19.3 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.1 11.0 13.6 94.7 58.6 48.4 1.8 6.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.5 14.0 93.5 57.0 47.6 2.1 4.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.2 12.3 91.4 56.4 47.5 2.1 8.0 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.5 11.9 89.2 54.6 46.4 1.9 4.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.2 12.0 86.5 55.6 46.9 2.6 5.4 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.8 14.4 87.7 54.3 47.6 5.0 9.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.7 16.0 109.8 66.1 54.6 2.0 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.5 11.8 88.6 55.8 47.7 0.9 7.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.7 11.3 89.1 57.5 48.5 2.0 6.5 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.8 14.7 93.1 53.9 48.0 2.6 8.0 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 11.4 85.4 56.4 48.0 2.2 6.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 12.0 19.3 99.9 56.0 49.2 3.0 8.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.9 12.6 89.0 56.2 47.8 2.8 7.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.2 11.8 86.7 55.3 48.1 3.5 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.4 11.9 85.1 55.6 48.0 2.0 7.5 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.9 12.6 13.1 87.6 55.0 47.8 2.5 7.2 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.6 13.4 86.4 55.2 47.9 2.1 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.8 13.0 92.1 56.0 49.1 4.1 7.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 6.8 12.7 84.2 55.8 47.6 1.8 5.6 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.8 14.7 13.6 99.6 62.5 52.1 1.8 6.6 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 21.4 16.1 94.3 53.7 48.0 6.2 15.7 28.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.3 11.7 86.6 56.5 48.1 1.8 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------